Estimates of late Early Cretaceous atmospheric CO2 from Mongolia based on stomatal and isotopic analysis of Pseudotorellia

Xiaoqing Zhang; Dana L. Royer; Gongle Shi; Niiden Ichinnorov; Patrick S. Herendeen; Peter R. Crane; Fabiany Herrera

doi:10.1002/ajb2.16376

journal article Jul 01, 2024

Estimates of late Early Cretaceous atmospheric CO2 from Mongolia based on stomatal and isotopic analysis of Pseudotorellia

Xiaoqing Zhang

American Journal of Botany Vol. 111 No. 7 · Wiley

View at Publisher Save 10.1002/ajb2.16376

Abstract

AbstractPremiseThe Aptian–Albian (121.4–100.5 Ma) was a greenhouse period with global temperatures estimated as 10–15°C warmer than pre‐industrial conditions, so it is surprising that the most reliable CO2 estimates from this time are <1400 ppm. This low CO2 during a warm period implies a very high Earth‐system sensitivity in the range of 6 to 9°C per CO2 doubling between the Aptian‐Albian and today.MethodsWe applied a well‐vetted paleo‐CO2 proxy based on leaf gas‐exchange principles (Franks model) to two Pseudotorellia species from three stratigraphically similar samples at the Tevshiin Govi lignite mine in central Mongolia (~119.7–100.5 Ma).ResultsOur median estimated CO2 concentration from the three respective samples was 2132, 2405, and 2770 ppm. The primary reason for the high estimated CO2 but with relatively large uncertainties is the very low stomatal density in both species, where small variations propagate to large changes in estimated CO2. Indeed, we found that at least 15 leaves are required before the aggregate estimated CO2 approaches that of the full data set.ConclusionsOur three CO2 estimates all exceeded 2000 ppm, translating to an Earth‐system sensitivity (~3–5°C/CO2 doubling) that is more in keeping with the current understanding of the long‐term climate system. Because of our large sample size, the directly measured inputs did not contribute much to the overall uncertainty in estimated CO2; instead, the inferred inputs were responsible for most of the overall uncertainty and thus should be scrutinized for their value choices.

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Published: Jul 01, 2024
Vol/Issue: 111(7)
License: View

Authors

X

Xiaoqing Zhang

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Wesleyan University Middletown 06459 CT USA; State Key Laboratory of Palaeobiology and Stratigraphy, Nanjing Institute of Geology and Palaeontology Chinese Academy of Sciences Nanjing 210008 China

D

Dana L. Royer

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Wesleyan University Middletown 06459 CT USA

G

Gongle Shi

State Key Laboratory of Palaeobiology and Stratigraphy, Nanjing Institute of Geology and Palaeontology Chinese Academy of Sciences Nanjing 210008 China

N

Niiden Ichinnorov

Institute of Paleontology Mongolian Academy of Sciences Ulaanbaatar 15160 Mongolia

P

Patrick S. Herendeen

Chicago Botanic Garden Chicago 60022 IL USA

P

Peter R. Crane

Oak Spring Garden Foundation, Oak Spring Upperville 20184 VA USA; Yale School of Environment Yale University New Haven 06511 CT USA

F

Fabiany Herrera

Earth Sciences, Negaunee Integrative Research Center Field Museum Chicago 60605 IL USA

Cite This Article

Xiaoqing Zhang, Dana L. Royer, Gongle Shi, et al. (2024). Estimates of late Early Cretaceous atmospheric CO2 from Mongolia based on stomatal and isotopic analysis of Pseudotorellia. American Journal of Botany, 111(7). https://doi.org/10.1002/ajb2.16376

Estimates of late Early Cretaceous atmospheric CO2 from Mongolia based on stomatal and isotopic analysis of Pseudotorellia

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