Ex‐ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub‐Saharan Africa

Sika Gbegbelegbe; Arega Alene; Alpha Kamara; Keith Wiebe; Victor Manyong; Tahirou Abdoulaye; Petros Mkandawire

doi:10.1002/fes3.172

journal article Open Access May 16, 2019

Ex‐ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub‐Saharan Africa

Sika Gbegbelegbe

Arega Alene Alpha Kamara Keith Wiebe

Victor Manyong Tahirou Abdoulaye Petros Mkandawire

Food and Energy Security Vol. 8 No. 4 · Wiley

View at Publisher Save 10.1002/fes3.172

Abstract

AbstractThis study undertakes an ex‐ante evaluation of the effects of alternative technology and policy options on soybean supply and demand in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) to 2050. Current soybean consumption in SSA is dominated by cooking oil followed by soybean cake used as animal feed. Due to weak processing sectors and low soybean yields, the region is currently importing about 70% of its consumption requirements. Based on the results from a geospatial bio‐economic modeling framework, soybean consumption in SSA is projected to more than double by 2050 compared to 2010 due in part to a rising population and rising incomes. On the other hand, supply from domestic production is projected to increase by 80% over the same period. Hence, by 2050, net imports into SSA would be nearly 4 times higher than supply from domestic production. Under a future drier climate, some of the production gains achieved through soybean research and extension would be lost and this would further worsen the soybean demand gap in SSA relative to the baseline. This study shows that relying on conventional breeding alone to increase soybean yields in SSA would not be enough to substantially reduce the future demand gap. A combination of promising innovations affecting the soybean value chain across SSA would be needed to close the soybean demand gap in SSA by 2050 under a drier future climate.

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References

Details

Published: May 16, 2019
Vol/Issue: 8(4)
License: View

Authors

S

Sika Gbegbelegbe

International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) Lilongwe Malawi

A

Arega Alene

International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) Lilongwe Malawi

A

Alpha Kamara

International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) Kano Nigeria

K

Keith Wiebe

International Food Policy Research Institute Washington District of Columbia

V

Victor Manyong

International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) Dar es Salaam Tanzania

T

Tahirou Abdoulaye

International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) Ibadan Nigeria

P

Petros Mkandawire

International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) Lilongwe Malawi

Funding

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Cite This Article

Sika Gbegbelegbe, Arega Alene, Alpha Kamara, et al. (2019). Ex‐ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub‐Saharan Africa. Food and Energy Security, 8(4). https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.172

Ex‐ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub‐Saharan Africa

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