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journal article Open Access Nov 15, 2019

The influence of ENSO on the upper warm temperature anomaly formation associated with the March–May heavy rainfall events in Tanzania

Kantamla B. Mafuru Tan Guirong
International Journal of Climatology Vol. 40 No. 5 pp. 2745-2763 · Wiley
View at Publisher Save 10.1002/joc.6364
Abstract
AbstractThis work aims at detecting to what extent the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation influences the upper warm temperature anomaly (UWTA) formation in Tanzania during March to May (MAM) season of 1980–2010. The UWTA has known to influence heavy rainfall events through enhanced vertical uplift and deepening surface low pressure. The study is thus critical towards improved early warning system through a better understanding of the mechanisms in the climate system responsible for the above average rainfall. The empirical orthogonal function analysis in this study, revealed the dominant interannual variability mode of the UWTA to be concentrated over the study region. The interannual variability of ENSO and the UWTA shows a moderate relationship during MAM (r = .5328) while a robust association (r = .7905) exists during the previous September to November (SON). Thus, the anomalous sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) of the central tropical Pacific (e.g., over Nino 3.4) leads 6 months before the UWTA of the study region and anomalous SSTA over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) peak up. Comparatively, the warm phase of ENSO during SON and December to February (DJF) is in phase relationship with the strengthened ascending branch of the Walker circulation over the warm TIO. Further analysis demonstrates that in SON the rising limb of the Walker circulation is the dominant source of uplift and convection enhancement over the warm TIO and later transports warm and moist air (i.e., diabatic heating) aloft for the UWTA formation during SON and DJF. Meanwhile, the Hadley circulation (HC) induced by the SSTA associated with ENSO exhibits the symmetric mode during SON and asymmetric mode in MAM. The asymmetric mode of the HC plays its role in transporting the warm and moist air from the warm TIO towards the study area for the UWTA formation during MAM.
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Reviews of Geophysics 10.1002/2016rg000544

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Metrics
19
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51
References
Details
Published
Nov 15, 2019
Vol/Issue
40(5)
Pages
2745-2763
License
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Authors
K
Kantamla B. Mafuru

Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCBC)/Collaborative Disasters (CIC‐FEMD) Nanjing People's Republic of China; College of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing Jiangsu People's Republic of China; Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania

T
Tan Guirong

Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCBC)/Collaborative Disasters (CIC‐FEMD) Nanjing People's Republic of China

Funding
National Natural Science Foundation of China Award: 41575070
National Basic Research Program of China Award: 2016YFA0600702
Cite This Article
Kantamla B. Mafuru, Tan Guirong (2019). The influence of ENSO on the upper warm temperature anomaly formation associated with the March–May heavy rainfall events in Tanzania. International Journal of Climatology, 40(5), 2745-2763. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6364
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