Agroclimatic zoning for bananas under climate change in Brazil

Gabriel Henrique de Olanda Souza; Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido; Rafael Fausto de Lima; Guilherme Botega Torsoni; Alisson Gaspar Chiquitto; Jose Reinaldo Cabral de Moraes

doi:10.1002/jsfa.12018

journal article Jun 03, 2022

Agroclimatic zoning for bananas under climate change in Brazil

Gabriel Henrique de Olanda Souza Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido

Rafael Fausto de Lima Guilherme Botega Torsoni Alisson Gaspar Chiquitto Jose Reinaldo Cabral de Moraes

Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture Vol. 102 No. 14 pp. 6511-6529 · Wiley

View at Publisher Save 10.1002/jsfa.12018

Abstract

Abstract

BACKGROUND
Climate change is the main cause of biotic and abiotic stresses in plants and affects yield. Therefore, we sought to carry out a study on future changes in the agroclimatic conditions of banana cultivation in Brazil. The current agroclimatic zoning was carried out with data obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology related to mean air temperature, annual rainfall, and soil texture data in Brazil. The global climate model BCC‐CSM1.1 (Beijing Climate Center‐Climate System Model, version 1.1), adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, corresponding to Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 for the period 2050 (2041–2060) and 2070 (2061–2080), obtained through the CHELSA V1.2 platform, was chosen for the climate projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Matrix images at a depth of 5–15 cm, obtained through the product of the SoilGrids system, were used for the texture data. ArcGIS version 10.8 was used to construct the maps.

RESULTS

Areas favorable to the crop plantation were classified as suitable when air temperature
T
AIR
was between 20 and 29 °C, annual rainfall
R
ANNUAL
between 1200 and 1900 mm, and soil clay content
C
SOIL
between 30 and 55%. Subsequently, the information was reclassified, summarizing the classes into preferential, recommended, little recommended, and not recommended. The current scenario shows a preferential class of 8.1%, recommended of 44.6%, little recommended of 47.1%, and not recommended of 0.1% for the Brazilian territory.

CONCLUSION
The results show no drastic changes in the total area regarding the classes, but there is a migration from these zones; that is, from tropical to subtropical and temperate regions. RCP 8.5–2070 (2061–2080) showed trends with negative impacts on arable areas for banana cultivation at the end of the century. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

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Details

Published: Jun 03, 2022
Vol/Issue: 102(14)
Pages: 6511-6529
License: View

Authors

G

Gabriel Henrique de Olanda Souza

Department of Agrometeorology Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Mato Grosso do Sul (IFMS) Campus Naviraí Naviraí Brazil

L

Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido

Department of Agrometeorology Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Sul de Minas Gerais (IFSULDEMINAS) – Campus Muzambinho Muzambinho Brazil

R

Rafael Fausto de Lima

Department of Agrometeorology Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Mato Grosso do Sul (IFMS) Campus Naviraí Naviraí Brazil

G

Guilherme Botega Torsoni

Department of Agrometeorology Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Mato Grosso do Sul (IFMS) Campus Naviraí Naviraí Brazil

A

Alisson Gaspar Chiquitto

Department of Agrometeorology Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Mato Grosso do Sul (IFMS) Campus Naviraí Naviraí Brazil

J

Jose Reinaldo Cabral de Moraes

Department of Agrometeorology State University of Sao Paulo (FCAV/UNESP) – Jaboticabal Jaboticabal Brazil

Cite This Article

Gabriel Henrique de Olanda Souza, Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido, Rafael Fausto de Lima, et al. (2022). Agroclimatic zoning for bananas under climate change in Brazil. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, 102(14), 6511-6529. https://doi.org/10.1002/jsfa.12018

Agroclimatic zoning for bananas under climate change in Brazil

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