Validation of an all‐sky imager–based nowcasting system for industrial PV plants

Pascal Kuhn; Bijan Nouri; Stefan Wilbert; Christoph Prahl; Nora Kozonek; Thomas Schmidt; Zeyad Yasser; Lourdes Ramirez; Luis Zarzalejo; Angela Meyer; Laurent Vuilleumier; Detlev Heinemann; Philippe Blanc; Robert Pitz‐Paal

doi:10.1002/pip.2968

journal article Nov 20, 2017

Validation of an all‐sky imager–based nowcasting system for industrial PV plants

Pascal Kuhn

Bijan Nouri Stefan Wilbert

Christoph Prahl Nora Kozonek Thomas Schmidt

Zeyad Yasser Lourdes Ramirez Luis Zarzalejo Angela Meyer Laurent Vuilleumier Detlev Heinemann Philippe Blanc

Robert Pitz‐Paal

Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications Vol. 26 No. 8 pp. 608-621 · Wiley

View at Publisher Save 10.1002/pip.2968

Abstract

AbstractBecause of the cloud‐induced variability of the solar resource, the growing contributions of photovoltaic plants to the overall power generation challenges the stability of electricity grids. To avoid blackouts, administrations started to define maximum negative ramp rates. Storages can be used to reduce the occurring ramps. Their required capacity, durability, and costs can be optimized by nowcasting systems. Nowcasting systems use the input of upward‐facing cameras to predict future irradiances. Previously, many nowcasting systems were developed and validated. However, these validations did not consider aggregation effects, which are present in industrial‐sized power plants. In this paper, we present the validation of nowcasted global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance maps derived from an example system consisting of 4 all‐sky cameras (“WobaS‐4cam”). The WobaS‐4cam system is operational at 2 solar energy research centers and at a commercial 50‐MW solar power plant. Besides its validation on 30 days, the working principle is briefly explained. The forecasting deviations are investigated with a focus on temporal and spatial aggregation effects. The validation found that spatial and temporal aggregations significantly improve forecast accuracies: Spatial aggregation reduces the relative root mean square error (GHI) from 30.9% (considering field sizes of 25 m2) to 23.5% (considering a field size of 4 km2) on a day with variable conditions for 1 minute averages and a lead time of 15 minutes. Over 30 days of validation, a relative root mean square error (GHI) of 20.4% for the next 15 minutes is observed at pixel basis (25 m2). Although the deviations of nowcasting systems strongly depend on the validation period and the specific weather conditions, the WobaS‐4cam system is considered to be at least state of the art.

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Metrics

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Citations

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References

Details

Published: Nov 20, 2017
Vol/Issue: 26(8)
Pages: 608-621
License: View

Authors

P

Pascal Kuhn

Institute of Solar Research Researcher, M.Sc. Physics, German Aerospace Center (DLR) Plataforma de Almería, Ctra. de Senés s/n km 5 04200 Tabernas Spain

B

Bijan Nouri

Institute of Solar Research German Aerospace Center (DLR) Plataforma de Almería, Ctra. de Senés s/n km 5 04200 Tabernas Spain

S

Stefan Wilbert

Institute of Solar Research German Aerospace Center (DLR) Plataforma de Almería, Ctra. de Senés s/n km 5 04200 Tabernas Spain

C

Christoph Prahl

Institute of Solar Research German Aerospace Center (DLR) Plataforma de Almería, Ctra. de Senés s/n km 5 04200 Tabernas Spain

N

Nora Kozonek

Institute of Solar Research German Aerospace Center (DLR) Plataforma de Almería, Ctra. de Senés s/n km 5 04200 Tabernas Spain

T

Thomas Schmidt

CSP Services GmbH Friedrich‐Ebert‐Ufer 30 51143 Cologne Germany

Z

Zeyad Yasser

TSK FLAGSOL Anna‐Schneider‐Steig 10 50678 Cologne Germany

L

Lourdes Ramirez

Energy Department, Renewable Energy Division CIEMAT Av. Complutense, 40 28040 Madrid Spain

L

Luis Zarzalejo

Energy Department, Renewable Energy Division CIEMAT Av. Complutense, 40 28040 Madrid Spain

A

Angela Meyer

MeteoSwiss Les Invuardes 1530 Payerne Switzerland

L

Laurent Vuilleumier

MeteoSwiss Les Invuardes 1530 Payerne Switzerland

D

Detlev Heinemann

Energy Meteorology Unit, Energy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory, Institute of Physics Oldenburg University 26111 Oldenburg Germany

P

Philippe Blanc

O. I. E.—Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University CS 10207 F‐06904 Sophia Antipolis CEDEX France

R

Robert Pitz‐Paal

Institute of Solar Research German Aerospace Center (DLR) Linder Höhe 51147 Cologne Germany

Funding

Bundesministerium fur Wirtschaft und Energie Award: 0325848A

Cite This Article

Pascal Kuhn, Bijan Nouri, Stefan Wilbert, et al. (2017). Validation of an all‐sky imager–based nowcasting system for industrial PV plants. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 26(8), 608-621. https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.2968

Validation of an all‐sky imager–based nowcasting system for industrial PV plants

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