Projecting the current and future potential global distribution of Hyphantria cunea (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) using CLIMEX

Xuezhen Ge; Shanyong He; Chenyi Zhu; Tao Wang; Zhichun Xu; Shixiang Zong

doi:10.1002/ps.5083

journal article Aug 16, 2018

Projecting the current and future potential global distribution of Hyphantria cunea (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) using CLIMEX

Xuezhen Ge

Shanyong He Chenyi Zhu Tao Wang

Zhichun Xu Shixiang Zong

Pest Management Science Vol. 75 No. 1 pp. 160-169 · Wiley

View at Publisher Save 10.1002/ps.5083

Abstract

AbstractBACKGROUNDThe international invasive and quarantined defoliating insect Hyphantria cunea Drury (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) causes huge ecological and economic losses in the world. Furthermore, future climate change may alter the distribution of H. cunea and aggravate the damage. In the present study, we used CLIMEX to project the potential global distribution of H. cunea according to both historical climate data (1961–1990) and future climate warming estimates (2011–2100) to define the impact of climate change.RESULTSUnder the historical climate scenario, we found that H. cunea can survive on every continent, and temperature is the main factor that limits its establishment. With climate change, suitability will increase in middle and high latitude regions, while decrease in the low latitude regions. Moreover, tropic regions will be the most sensitive to climate change impacts for the pest to survive. The impacts of climate change will also increase over time, whether they be positive impacts or negative impacts.CONCLUSIONThe projected potential distributions provide a theoretical basis for quarantine and control strategies for the management of this pest in each country. Furthermore, these results provide substantial guidance for studies of the effects of climate change on other major forest pests. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry

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Details

Published: Aug 16, 2018
Vol/Issue: 75(1)
Pages: 160-169
License: View

Authors

X

Xuezhen Ge

Key Laboratory of Beijing for the Control of Forest Pests Beijing Forestry University Beijing P. R. China

S

Shanyong He

Key Laboratory of Beijing for the Control of Forest Pests Beijing Forestry University Beijing P. R. China

C

Chenyi Zhu

College of Urban and Environmental Sciences and MOE Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes Peking University Beijing P. R. China

T

Tao Wang

Mentougou Forestry Station Beijing P. R. China

Z

Zhichun Xu

Key Laboratory of Beijing for the Control of Forest Pests Beijing Forestry University Beijing P. R. China

S

Shixiang Zong

Key Laboratory of Beijing for the Control of Forest Pests Beijing Forestry University Beijing P. R. China

Funding

Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities Award: 2016ZCQ07

Cite This Article

Xuezhen Ge, Shanyong He, Chenyi Zhu, et al. (2018). Projecting the current and future potential global distribution of Hyphantria cunea (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) using CLIMEX. Pest Management Science, 75(1), 160-169. https://doi.org/10.1002/ps.5083

Projecting the current and future potential global distribution of Hyphantria cunea (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) using CLIMEX

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