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journal article Open Access Aug 23, 2022

Evaluating invasion risk and population dynamics of the brown marmorated stink bug across the contiguous United States

Javier Gutiérrez Illán ORCID Gengping Zhu James F Walgenbach ORCID Angel Acebes‐Doria Arthur M Agnello ORCID Diane G Alston Heather Andrews Elisabeth H Beers J Christopher Bergh Ricardo T Bessin Brett R Blaauw G David Buntin Erik C Burkness John P Cullum Kent M Daane ORCID Lauren E Fann Joanna Fisher Pierre Girod Larry J Gut George C Hamilton James R Hepler Richard Hilton Kim A Hoelmer William D Hutchison Peter J Jentsch Shimat V Joseph ORCID George G Kennedy Grzegorz Krawczyk ORCID Thomas P Kuhar ORCID Jana C Lee ORCID Tracy C Leskey ORCID Adrian T Marshal Joshua M Milnes Anne L Nielsen Dilani K Patel Hillary D Peterson Dominic D Reisig Jhalendra P Rijal Ashfaq A Sial Lori R Spears Judith M Stahl Kathy M Tatman Sally V Taylor ORCID Glynn Tillman Michael D Toews Raul T Villanueva Celeste Welty Nik G Wiman Julianna K Wilson Frank G Zalom David W Crowder
Pest Management Science Vol. 78 No. 11 pp. 4929-4938 · Wiley
View at Publisher Save 10.1002/ps.7113
Abstract
AbstractBACKGROUNDInvasive species threaten the productivity and stability of natural and managed ecosystems. Predicting the spread of invaders, which can aid in early mitigation efforts, is a major challenge, especially in the face of climate change. While ecological niche models are effective tools to assess habitat suitability for invaders, such models have rarely been created for invasive pest species with rapidly expanding ranges. Here, we leveraged a national monitoring effort from 543 sites over 3 years to assess factors mediating the occurrence and abundance of brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB, Halyomorpha halys), an invasive insect pest that has readily established throughout much of the United States.RESULTSWe used maximum entropy models to estimate the suitable habitat of BMSB under several climate scenarios, and generalized boosted models to assess environmental factors that regulated BMSB abundance. Our models captured BMSB distribution and abundance with high accuracy, and predicted a 70% increase in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. However, environmental factors that mediated the geographical distribution of BMSB were different from those driving abundance. While BMSB occurrence was most affected by winter precipitation and proximity to populated areas, BMSB abundance was influenced most strongly by evapotranspiration and solar photoperiod.CONCLUSIONOur results suggest that linking models of establishment (occurrence) and population dynamics (abundance) offers a more effective way to forecast the spread and impact of BMSB and other invasive species than simply occurrence‐based models, allowing for targeted mitigation efforts. Implications of distribution shifts under climate change are discussed. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.
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References
Details
Published
Aug 23, 2022
Vol/Issue
78(11)
Pages
4929-4938
License
View
Authors
J
Javier Gutiérrez Illán

Department of Entomology Washington State University Pullman WA USA

G
Gengping Zhu

Department of Entomology Washington State University Pullman WA USA

J
James F Walgenbach

Department of Entomology and Plant Pathology North Carolina State University Mills River NC USA

A
Angel Acebes‐Doria

Department of Entomology University of Georgia Athens GA USA

A
Arthur M Agnello

Department of Entomology Cornell University Geneva NY USA

D
Diane G Alston

Department of Biology Utah State University Logan UT USA

H
Heather Andrews

North Willamette Research and Extension Center Oregon State University Aurora OR USA

E
Elisabeth H Beers

Department of Entomology, Tree Fruit Research and Extension Center Washington State University Wenatchee WA USA

J
J Christopher Bergh

Alison H. Smith, Jr, Agricultural Research and Extension Center Virginia Tech Winchester VA USA

R
Ricardo T Bessin

Department of Entomology University of Kentucky Lexington KY USA

B
Brett R Blaauw

Department of Entomology University of Georgia Athens GA USA

G
G David Buntin

Department of Entomology University of Georgia Athens GA USA

E
Erik C Burkness

Department of Entomology University of Minnesota St Paul MN USA

J
John P Cullum

Appalachian Fruit Research Station USDA‐ARS Kearneysville WV USA

K
Kent M Daane

Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management University of California Berkeley CA USA

L
Lauren E Fann

Department of Entomology University of Kentucky Lexington KY USA

J
Joanna Fisher

Department of Entomology and Nematology University of California Davis CA USA

P
Pierre Girod

Department of Entomology Rutgers University New Brunswick NJ USA

L
Larry J Gut

Department of Entomology Michigan State University East Lansing MI USA

G
George C Hamilton

Department of Entomology Rutgers University New Brunswick NJ USA

J
James R Hepler

Department of Entomology, Tree Fruit Research and Extension Center Washington State University Wenatchee WA USA

R
Richard Hilton

Southern Oregon Research and Extension Center Oregon State University Central Point OR USA

K
Kim A Hoelmer

Beneficial Insects Introduction Research Unit USDA‐ARS Newark DE USA

W
William D Hutchison

Department of Entomology University of Minnesota St Paul MN USA

P
Peter J Jentsch

Hudson Valley Research Lab Cornell University Highland NY USA

S
Shimat V Joseph

Department of Entomology University of Georgia Athens GA USA

G
George G Kennedy

Department of Entomology and Plant Pathology North Carolina State University Raleigh NC USA

G
Grzegorz Krawczyk

Department of Entomology Pennsylvania State University Biglerville PA USA

T
Thomas P Kuhar

Department of Entomology Virginia Tech Blacksburg VA USA

J
Jana C Lee

Horticultural Crops Research USDA‐ARS Corvallis OR USA

T
Tracy C Leskey

Appalachian Fruit Research Station USDA‐ARS Kearneysville WV USA

A
Adrian T Marshal

Department of Entomology, Tree Fruit Research and Extension Center Washington State University Wenatchee WA USA

J
Joshua M Milnes

Department of Entomology, Tree Fruit Research and Extension Center Washington State University Wenatchee WA USA

A
Anne L Nielsen

Department of Entomology Rutgers University New Brunswick NJ USA

D
Dilani K Patel

Department of Entomology University of Georgia Athens GA USA

H
Hillary D Peterson

Department of Entomology Pennsylvania State University Biglerville PA USA

D
Dominic D Reisig

Department of Entomology and Plant Pathology North Carolina State University Plymouth NC USA

J
Jhalendra P Rijal

Agriculture and Natural Resources and Statewide IPM Program University of California Davis CA USA

A
Ashfaq A Sial

Department of Entomology University of Georgia Athens GA USA

L
Lori R Spears

Department of Biology Utah State University Logan UT USA

J
Judith M Stahl

Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management University of California Berkeley CA USA

K
Kathy M Tatman

Beneficial Insects Introduction Research Unit USDA‐ARS Newark DE USA

S
Sally V Taylor

Tidewater Agricultural Research and Extension Center Virginia Tech University Suffolk VA USA

G
Glynn Tillman

Southeast Watershed Research USDA‐ARS Tifton GA USA

M
Michael D Toews

Department of Entomology University of Georgia Athens GA USA

R
Raul T Villanueva

Department of Entomology University of Kentucky Princeton KY USA

C
Celeste Welty

Department of Entomology Ohio State University Columbus OH USA

N
Nik G Wiman

North Willamette Research and Extension Center Oregon State University Aurora OR USA

J
Julianna K Wilson

Department of Entomology Michigan State University East Lansing MI USA

F
Frank G Zalom

Department of Entomology and Nematology University of California Davis CA USA

D
David W Crowder

Department of Entomology Washington State University Pullman WA USA

Funding
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Cite This Article
Javier Gutiérrez Illán, Gengping Zhu, James F Walgenbach, et al. (2022). Evaluating invasion risk and population dynamics of the brown marmorated stink bug across the contiguous United States. Pest Management Science, 78(11), 4929-4938. https://doi.org/10.1002/ps.7113
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