Evaluating the use of in‐season measures of pest abundance to predict end‐of‐season damage: a study in commercial almond (Prunus dulcis)

Geoffrey T Broadhead; Bradley S Higbee; John J Beck

doi:10.1002/ps.8532

journal article Nov 14, 2024

Evaluating the use of in‐season measures of pest abundance to predict end‐of‐season damage: a study in commercial almond (Prunus dulcis)

Geoffrey T Broadhead

Bradley S Higbee John J Beck

Pest Management Science Vol. 81 No. 3 pp. 1324-1332 · Wiley

View at Publisher Save 10.1002/ps.8532

Abstract

AbstractBACKGROUNDPre‐harvest pest management tools are essential to minimizing crop loss. The development of predictive models using early warning signs of pest abundance to predict imminent crop loss can guide management decisions and enable targeted, well‐calibrated intervention. With sufficient data, in‐season measures of pest abundance can be an important factor in generating accurate predictions of damage. However, sampling plans for tracking insect phenology and those designed to guide informed pest‐management may not be equivalent. Using data from a commercial almond orchard setting, we evaluated five different lure‐trap combinations used for monitoring navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella; a primary pest of almond) under different management conditions. Using these data, we developed a predictive model of almond damage and evaluated the contribution of in‐season measures of pest abundance towards accurate predictions of end‐of‐season damage.RESULTSMating disruption in orchard management influenced the efficacy of multiple lure‐trap combinations. Despite this effect, there was as strong correlation between measured pest abundance and damage across multiple trap types regardless of management method. While statistically significant, measures of pest abundance did not enhance the accuracy of predictive models and characteristics of almond variety were stronger predictors of damage at harvest.CONCLUSIONRepeated significant correlations between navel orangeworm abundance and almond damage across multiple trap types justifies continued exploration of predictive modeling as a management tool. Lure‐trap combinations exhibiting resistance to external factors are clear candidates for further development. However, generating accurate predictions of damage using these data will likely require calibration or modification of current sampling protocols. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

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Details

Published: Nov 14, 2024
Vol/Issue: 81(3)
Pages: 1324-1332
License: View

Authors

G

Geoffrey T Broadhead

Chemistry Research Unit, Center for Medical, Agricultural, and Veterinary Entomology, Agricultural Research Service United States Department of Agriculture Gainesville FL USA

B

Bradley S Higbee

Trécé Inc. Adair OK USA

J

John J Beck

Chemistry Research Unit, Center for Medical, Agricultural, and Veterinary Entomology, Agricultural Research Service United States Department of Agriculture Gainesville FL USA

Funding

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Cite This Article

Geoffrey T Broadhead, Bradley S Higbee, John J Beck (2024). Evaluating the use of in‐season measures of pest abundance to predict end‐of‐season damage: a study in commercial almond (Prunus dulcis). Pest Management Science, 81(3), 1324-1332. https://doi.org/10.1002/ps.8532

Evaluating the use of in‐season measures of pest abundance to predict end‐of‐season damage: a study in commercial almond (Prunus dulcis)

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