Sensitivity analysis for models with multiple behavior modes: a method based on behavior pattern measures

Mustafa Hekimoğlu; Yaman Barlas

doi:10.1002/sdr.1568

journal article Jul 01, 2016

Sensitivity analysis for models with multiple behavior modes: a method based on behavior pattern measures

Mustafa Hekimoğlu Yaman Barlas

System Dynamics Review Vol. 32 No. 3-4 pp. 332-362 · Wiley

View at Publisher Save 10.1002/sdr.1568

Abstract

AbstractSensitivity analysis of system dynamics models is essentially about sensitivity of patterns of output behaviors to inputs, since system dynamics modeling is behavior pattern oriented. In this study, a regression‐based procedure for pattern sensitivity analysis is developed, by defining behavior pattern measures such as equilibrium level, trend, inflection point, or oscillation amplitude. A unique feature of the procedure is that it takes into account the possibility of a model generating multiple behavior modes. This pattern‐oriented procedure is next applied to the tipping point project management model and a generic supply line model. These test applications yield sensitivity results that are meaningful, and also consistent with previously available sensitivity information about the parameters of these models. Finally, our pattern sensitivity analysis is shown to be a useful and effective method also for oscillatory system dynamics models, an unsolved sensitivity problem previously in the literature. Copyright © 2017 System Dynamics Society

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Details

Published: Jul 01, 2016
Vol/Issue: 32(3-4)
Pages: 332-362
License: View

Authors

M

Mustafa Hekimoğlu

Department of Industrial Engineering Işık University Şile 34980 Istanbul Turkey

Y

Yaman Barlas

Industrial Engineering Department Boğaziçi University Bebek 34342 İstanbul Turkey

Cite This Article

Mustafa Hekimoğlu, Yaman Barlas (2016). Sensitivity analysis for models with multiple behavior modes: a method based on behavior pattern measures. System Dynamics Review, 32(3-4), 332-362. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1568

Sensitivity analysis for models with multiple behavior modes: a method based on behavior pattern measures

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