Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Transparency and integrated assessment modeling

Jim Skea; Priyadarshi Shukla; Alaa Al Khourdajie; David McCollum

doi:10.1002/wcc.727

journal article Open Access Jul 08, 2021

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Transparency and integrated assessment modeling

Jim Skea

Priyadarshi Shukla

Alaa Al Khourdajie

David McCollum

WIREs Climate Change Vol. 12 No. 5 · Wiley

View at Publisher Save 10.1002/wcc.727

Abstract

AbstractIntegrated assessment models (IAMs) connect trends in future socioeconomic and technological development with impacts on the environment, such as global climate change. They occupy a critical position at the global science‐policy interface. IAMs and associated scenarios have come under intense scrutiny, with critiques addressing both methodological and substantive issues, such as land use, carbon dioxide removal and technology performance. Criticisms have also addressed the transparency of IAM methods and assumptions as well as the transparency of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of IAMs. This paper, authored by the co‐chairs of IPCC Working Group III and members of the Technical Support Unit, documents activities aiming to enhance the transparency of IAMs and their assessment. It includes a history of IPCC's approach to scenarios covering the formation of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) in 2007 and the emergence of the approach by which IPCC facilitates the development of scenarios, but does not produce them itself. An IPCC Expert Meeting at the start of the current assessment cycle made transparency recommendations targeted at both the research community and IPCC. The community has taken steps to “open the black box” by moving toward open‐source and web‐publishing IAM documentation. IPCC has included an Annex to its next report focusing on scenarios and modeling methodologies. An open call for scenario data linked to the current IPCC report includes an expanded set of input and output variables. This paper ends with suggested criteria for measuring the success of these efforts to improve transparency.This article is categorized under:
Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Applications of Integrated Assessment to Climate Change
Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Integrated Assessment Modeling

Topics

No keywords indexed for this article. Browse by subject →

References

54

[1]

The trouble with negative emissions

Kevin Anderson, Glen Peters

Science 10.1126/science.aah4567

[2]

10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.038

[3]

10.1080/14693062.2020.1781048

[4]

Sensitivity to energy technology costs: A multi-model comparison analysis

Valentina Bosetti, Giacomo Marangoni, Emanuele Borgonovo et al.

Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.12.012

[5]

Brockway, P. E., Sorrell, S., Semieniuk, G., Heun, M. K., & Court, V. "The role of the discount rate for emission pathways and negative emissions" Environmental Research Letters (2019)

[6]

10.1016/j.rser.2021.110781

[7]

10.1260/095830503765184583

[8]

10.1057/9780230509467

[9]

10.1016/j.eneco.2012.07.004

[10]

EMF. (2021a).Energy Modeling Forum. Retrieved fromhttps://emf.stanford.edu/projects

[11]

EMF. (2021b).Energy Modeling Forum. Retrieved fromhttps://emf.stanford.edu/projects/emf-36-carbon-pricing-after-paris-carpri

[12]

Fragkos P. "Energy system transitions and low‐carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU‐28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States" Energy (2021)

[13]

10.3390/en12091747

[14]

10.1086/425063

[15]

IAMC. (2021).Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium(Models and documentation). Retrieved fromhttps://www.iamconsortium.org/resources/models-documentation/

[16]

IAMC Wiki. (2021).Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium. Retrieved fromhttps://www.iamcdocumentation.eu/index.php/IAMC_wiki

[17]

International Energy Agency Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (IEA‐ETSAP). (2021).TIMES. Retrieved fromhttps://iea-etsap.org/index.php/etsap-tools/model-generators/times

[18]

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). (2021a).AR6 scenario explorer hosted by IIASA. Retrieved fromhttps://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/ar6-scenario-submission/

[19]

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). (2021b).The MESSAGEix framework. Retrieved fromhttps://docs.messageix.org/en/stable/

[20]

IPCC. (2005a).Workshop on new emission scenarios 29 June–1 July 2005 (Meeting report).IPCC 71. Retrieved fromhttp://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/7710/1/ipcc-workshop-2005-06.pdf

[21]

IPCC. (2005b).Report of the 24th session of the IPCC Montreal 26–28 September 2005.IPCC. Retrieved fromhttps://archive.ipcc.ch/meetings/session24/final-report.pdf

[22]

IPCC (2014)

[23]

IPCC (2016)

[24]

IPCC (2017)

[25]

IPCC Working Group III. (2017).Mitigation of climate change: Background to the proposed outline for the WG III contribution to the AR6(WG‐III: 13th/INF.1).

[26]

IPCC (2018)

[27]

IPCC. (2018b).Report on the selection of coordinating lead authors lead authors and review editors of working group III contribution to the sixth assessment(Report IPCC‐XLVII/INF.3). Retrieved fromhttps://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/04/070320180433-INF.-3authors-WGIII.pdf

[28]

IPCC. (2018c).Report by the ad hoc task force on the future of the task group on data and scenario support for impact and climate analysis(IPCC‐XLVII/Doc.9). Retrieved fromhttps://archive.ipcc.ch/apps/eventmanager/documents/49/020320180441-Doc.%209-ATF-TGICA.pdf

[29]

IPCC (2019)

[30]

IPCC (2019)

[31]

Joint Global Change Research Institute. (2021).Global change analysis model. Retrieved fromhttp://www.globalchange.umd.edu/gcam/

[32]

10.1002/wene.98

[33]

10.1016/j.energy.2018.12.131

[34]

10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020

[35]

10.1080/14693062.2017.1346498

[36]

10.1007/s11625-019-00702-y

[37]

MAGICC. (2021).The climate system in a nutshell. Retrieved fromhttp://www.magicc.org/

[38]

10.1038/s41558-020-0740-1

[39]

Moss R. (2008)

[40]

Nakicenovic N. (2000)

[41]

A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways

Brian C. O’Neill, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi et al.

Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2

[42]

The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy

Robert S. Pindyck

Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 10.1093/reep/rew012

[43]

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). (2021).REMIND. Retrieved fromhttps://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/institute/departments/transformation-pathways/models/remind

[44]

10.1080/14693062.2020.1824891

[45]

10.1002/wcc.679

[46]

10.1038/nclimate2582

[47]

10.1007/s10584-020-02837-9

[48]

10.1023/a:1019090117643

[49]

10.1002/wene.57

[50]

UNFCCC. (2020).First meeting of the structured expert dialogue of the second periodic review. Retrieved fromhttps://unfccc.int/event/first-meeting-of-the-structured-expert-dialogue

Showing 50 of 54 references

Metrics

59

Citations

54

References

Details

Published: Jul 08, 2021
Vol/Issue: 12(5)
License: View

Authors

J

Jim Skea

Centre for Environmental Policy Imperial College London London UK

P

Priyadarshi Shukla

Ahmedabad University Amrut Mody School of Management, Global Center for Environment and Energy, GICT Building, Central Campus Ahmedabad Gujarat India

A

Alaa Al Khourdajie

Centre for Environmental Policy Imperial College London London UK

D

David McCollum

Electric Power Research Institute Palo Alto CA USA

Funding

Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Award: EP/P022820/1

Cite This Article

Jim Skea, Priyadarshi Shukla, Alaa Al Khourdajie, et al. (2021). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Transparency and integrated assessment modeling. WIREs Climate Change, 12(5). https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.727

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Transparency and integrated assessment modeling

You May Also Like