journal article Open Access May 01, 2026

Where the trees fall: Macroeconomic forecasts for forest-reliant states

View at Publisher Save 10.1016/j.forpol.2026.103739
Topics

No keywords indexed for this article. Browse by subject →

References
74
[1]
Al-Ballaa "Test for cointegration based on two-stage least squares" J. Appl. Stat. (2005) 10.1080/02664760500079571
[2]
Anderson "A vector error-correction forecasting model of the US economy" J. Macroecon. (2002) 10.1016/s0164-0704(02)00067-8
[3]
Andrei "Vector error correction model in explaining the Association of some Macroeconomic Variables in Romania" Procedia Econ. Financ. (2015) 10.1016/s2212-5671(15)00261-0
[4]
Apostu "Energy transition in non-euro countries from central and Eastern Europe: evidence from panel vector error correction model" Energies (2022) 10.3390/en15239118
[5]
Asnawi "Vector autoregressive model: to analyze the influence of the agriculture, mining and quar in rying sectors on local revenues" Miner. Econ. (2025) 10.1007/s13563-024-00448-9
[6]
Baek "The long-run determinants of US lumber imported from Canada revisited" Forest Policy Econ. (2012) 10.1016/j.forpol.2011.07.007
[7]
Baek "US–Canada softwood lumber trade: measuring the market and welfare impacts of restrictions" For. Sci. (2006)
[8]
Ballweg (2017)
[9]
Balogh (2018)
[10]
Banaś "Evaluating a seasonal autoregressive moving average model with an exogenous variable for short-term timber price forecasting" Forest Policy Econ. (2021) 10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102564
[11]
Bekhet "Assessing the relationship between oil prices, energy consumption and macroeconomic performance in Malaysia: co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) approach" Int. Bus. Res. (2009) 10.5539/ibr.v2n3p152
[12]
Bhatt "Economic contribution of forestry sector to national economy in Nepal" J. Resour. Ecol. (2021)
[13]
BLS (2011)
[14]
Bobeica "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for inflation modelling" Int. J. Forecast. (2023) 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.01.002
[15]
Cloughesy (2021)
[16]
Conrad "A review of changes in US logging businesses 1980s–present" J. For. (2018)
[17]
Crandall "Impacts of recent mill closures and potential biofuels development on Maine’s Forest products industry" Me. Policy Rev. (2017)
[18]
Crandall "Shifting industrial geographies of timber production and processing in the Pacific northwest" Forest Policy Econ. (2025) 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103588
[19]
Daigneault "Estimating welfare effects from supply shocks with dynamic factor demand models" Forest Policy Econ. (2016) 10.1016/j.forpol.2016.08.003
[20]
Eicher "Forecasts in times of crises" Int. J. Forecast. (2019) 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.04.001
[21]
Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing

Robert F. Engle, C. W. J. Granger

Econometrica 1987 10.2307/1913236
[22]
Federal Open Market Committee (2025)
[23]
Federal Reserve System (2016)
[24]
Ferguene "Forecasting models for Quebec’s lumber demand and exports using multivariate regression technique" For. Chron. (2023) 10.5558/tfc2023-006
[25]
Fickle
[26]
Gendron (2019)
[27]
Guo "Forest market outlook in the southern United States" Forest Policy Econ. (2023) 10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103091
[28]
Haji-Othman "Further assessment of the price competitiveness of Malaysian lauan lumber imports in the United States" For. Sci. (1991)
[29]
Henderson (2008)
[30]
Hernandez-Diaz "Wavelet analysis and forecasting using open-access lumber market indices for assessing the impact of hurricanes on southern US stumpage prices" For. Prod. (2024)
[31]
Hetemaki "Short-term forecasting models for the Finnish Forest sector: lumber exports and sawlog demand" For. Sci. (2004)
[32]
Hietala "Finnish and Swedish sawnwood exports to the UK market in the European monetary union regime" For. Sci. (2013)
[33]
Hill (2008)
[34]
Hodges "Recession effects on the forests and forest products industries of the south" For. Prod. J. (2011)
[35]
Jiang "A panel vector error correction approach to forecasting demand in regional construction markets" Constr. Manag. Econ. (2014) 10.1080/01446193.2014.977800
[36]
Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors

Søren Johansen

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 1988 10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3
[37]
Johansen (1995)
[38]
Kolo "Forecasting the German forest products trade: a vector error correction model" J. For. Econ. (2017)
[39]
Kozuch "A comparison of artificial neural network and time series models for timber price forecasting" Forests (2023) 10.3390/f14020177
[40]
La "Portfolio diversification through timber real estate investment trusts: a cointegration analysis" Forest Policy Econ. (2015)
[41]
Lambert (2013)
[42]
Lamichhane "Examining divergence in softwood lumber and timber prices in the southern United States" For. Sci. (2025)
[43]
Liew "What lag selection criteria should we employ?" Econ. Bull. (2004)
[44]
Malaty "Modelling and forecasting Finnish pine sawlog stumpage prices using alternative time-series methods" Can. J. For. Res. (2006) 10.1139/x06-208
[45]
Mei "Modeling and forecasting pine sawtimber stumpage prices in the US south by various time series models" Can. J. For. Res. (2010) 10.1139/x10-087
[46]
Michieka "Oil price fluctuations and employment in Kern County: a vector error correction approach" Energy Policy (2015) 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.09.043
[47]
Munn (1997)
[48]
Nanang "A multivariate cointegration test of the law of one price for Canadian softwood lumber markets" Forest Policy Econ. (2000) 10.1016/s1389-9341(00)00028-9
[49]
Nanang "Analysis of export demand for Ghana’s timber products: a multivariate co-integration approach" J. For. Econ. (2009)
[50]
OECD (2021)

Showing 50 of 74 references

Metrics
0
Citations
74
References
Details
Published
May 01, 2026
Vol/Issue
186
Pages
103739
License
View
Funding
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Cite This Article
Andrew Crawley, Adam Daigneault, Jonathan Gendron (2026). Where the trees fall: Macroeconomic forecasts for forest-reliant states. Forest Policy and Economics, 186, 103739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2026.103739
Related

You May Also Like

Climate-Smart Forestry: the missing link

P.J. Verkerk, R. Costanza · 2020

183 citations

Positioning non-timber forest products on the development agenda

Charlie M. Shackleton, Ashok K. Pandey · 2014

146 citations

Back to basics: Considerations in evaluating the outcomes of community forestry

Ahmad Maryudi, Rosan R. Devkota · 2012

146 citations

Forest contributions to livelihoods in changing agriculture-forest landscapes

Laura Vang Rasmusssen, Cristy Watkins · 2017

134 citations