Forming COVID-19 Policy Under Uncertainty

Charles F. Manski

doi:10.1017/bca.2020.20

journal article Open Access Jan 01, 2020

Forming COVID-19 Policy Under Uncertainty

Charles F. Manski

Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis Vol. 11 No. 3 pp. 341-356 · Cambridge University Press (CUP)

View at Publisher Save 10.1017/bca.2020.20

Abstract

AbstractThis paper presents my thinking and concerns about formation of COVID-19 policy. Policy formation must cope with substantial uncertainties about the nature of the disease, the dynamics of transmission, and behavioral responses. Data uncertainties limit our knowledge of the past trajectory and current state of the pandemic. Data and modeling uncertainties limit our ability to predict the impacts of alternative policies. I explain why current epidemiological and macroeconomic modeling cannot deliver realistically optimal policy. I describe my recent work quantifying basic data uncertainties that make policy analysis difficult. I discuss approaches for policy choice under uncertainty and suggest adaptive policy diversification.

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References

Details

Published: Jan 01, 2020
Vol/Issue: 11(3)
Pages: 341-356
License: View

Authors

C

Charles F. Manski

Cite This Article

Charles F. Manski (2020). Forming COVID-19 Policy Under Uncertainty. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 11(3), 341-356. https://doi.org/10.1017/bca.2020.20

Forming COVID-19 Policy Under Uncertainty

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