Minority Success in Non-Majority Minority Districts: Finding the “Sweet Spot”

David Lublin; Lisa Handley; Thomas L. Brunell; Bernard Grofman

doi:10.1017/rep.2019.24

journal article Sep 02, 2019

Minority Success in Non-Majority Minority Districts: Finding the “Sweet Spot”

David Lublin

Lisa Handley Thomas L. Brunell Bernard Grofman

The Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics Vol. 5 No. 2 pp. 275-298 · Cambridge University Press (CUP)

View at Publisher Save 10.1017/rep.2019.24

Abstract

AbstractThough African-American and Latino electoral success in state legislative and congressional elections continues to occur almost entirely in majority-minority districts, minorities now have new opportunities in districts that are only 40–50% minority. This success can primarily be explained in terms of a curvilinear model that generates a “sweet spot” of maximum likelihood of minority candidate electoral success as a function of minority population share of the district and the proportion of the district that votes Republican. Past racial redistricting legal challenges often focused on cracking concentrated racial minorities to prevent the creation of majority-minority districts. Future lawsuits may also follow in the steps of recent successful court challenges against racially motivated packing that resulted in the reduction of minority population percentage in a previously majority-minority district in order to enhance minority opportunity in an adjacent non-majority-minority district.

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Metrics

20

Citations

47

References

Details

Published: Sep 02, 2019
Vol/Issue: 5(2)
Pages: 275-298
License: View

Authors

Department of Political Science and Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Science, University of California, Irvine, California 92697;

Cite This Article

David Lublin, Lisa Handley, Thomas L. Brunell, et al. (2019). Minority Success in Non-Majority Minority Districts: Finding the “Sweet Spot”. The Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics, 5(2), 275-298. https://doi.org/10.1017/rep.2019.24

Minority Success in Non-Majority Minority Districts: Finding the “Sweet Spot”

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