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journal article Mar 05, 2005

Soil moisture and predicted spells of extreme temperatures in Britain

B. B. Brabson D. H. Lister P. D. Jones J. P. Palutikof
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Vol. 110 No. D5 · American Geophysical Union (AGU)
View at Publisher Save 10.1029/2004jd005156
Abstract
This paper reports on an analysis of the relationship of soil moisture to extreme temperatures in Britain, taken from the Hadley Centre general circulation model HadCM3 (1860–2099) and validated using the central England temperature extremes from the overlapping period 1878–2000. By 2100, HadCM3 predicts higher average temperatures and a greater variability, asymmetry, and persistence of warm extremes. A generalized extreme value analysis relates extremes to the periods of low soil moisture in the model. Longer spells of extreme temperature are seen to arise both from the statistical increase in the frequency of extremes and from the extended periods of low soil moisture. As an example, by 2060–2100 the probability of hot spells longer than 7 days with Tmax> 25°C is predicted to rise from its present value of 2%/summer to 10%/summer for high soil moisture summers and to 80%/summer when the low soil moisture summers are included.
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References
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Cited By
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Land‐Atmosphere Interactions Exacerbated the Drought and Heatwave Over Northern Europe During Summer 2018

Paul A. Dirmeyer, Gianpaolo Balsamo · 2021

AGU Advances
Metrics
54
Citations
27
References
Details
Published
Mar 05, 2005
Vol/Issue
110(D5)
License
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Authors
B
B. B. Brabson

Physics Department Indiana University Bloomington Indiana USA

D
D. H. Lister

Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich UK

P
P. D. Jones

Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich UK

J
J. P. Palutikof

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Meteorological Office Exeter UK

Cite This Article
B. B. Brabson, D. H. Lister, P. D. Jones, et al. (2005). Soil moisture and predicted spells of extreme temperatures in Britain. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 110(D5). https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jd005156
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