Stabilizing climate requires near‐zero emissions

H. Damon Matthews; Ken Caldeira

doi:10.1029/2007gl032388

journal article Feb 01, 2008

Stabilizing climate requires near‐zero emissions

H. Damon Matthews

Ken Caldeira

Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 35 No. 4 · American Geophysical Union (AGU)

View at Publisher Save 10.1029/2007gl032388

Abstract

Current international climate mitigation efforts aim to stabilize levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, human‐induced climate warming will continue for many centuries, even after atmospheric CO2 levels are stabilized. In this paper, we assess the CO2 emissions requirements for global temperature stabilization within the next several centuries, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We show first that a single pulse of carbon released into the atmosphere increases globally averaged surface temperature by an amount that remains approximately constant for several centuries, even in the absence of additional emissions. We then show that to hold climate constant at a given global temperature requires near‐zero future carbon emissions. Our results suggest that future anthropogenic emissions would need to be eliminated in order to stabilize global‐mean temperatures. As a consequence, any future anthropogenic emissions will commit the climate system to warming that is essentially irreversible on centennial timescales.

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Citations

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References

Details

Published: Feb 01, 2008
Vol/Issue: 35(4)
License: View

Authors

H

H. Damon Matthews

Department of Geography, Planning and Environment Concordia University Montreal, Quebec Canada

K

Ken Caldeira

Department of Global Ecology Carnegie Institution of Washington Stanford California USA

Cite This Article

H. Damon Matthews, Ken Caldeira (2008). Stabilizing climate requires near‐zero emissions. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(4). https://doi.org/10.1029/2007gl032388

Stabilizing climate requires near‐zero emissions

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