Nonlocal Effects Dominate the Global Mean Surface Temperature Response to the Biogeophysical Effects of Deforestation

Johannes Winckler; Quentin Lejeune; Christian H. Reick; Julia Pongratz

doi:10.1029/2018gl080211

journal article Jan 16, 2019

Nonlocal Effects Dominate the Global Mean Surface Temperature Response to the Biogeophysical Effects of Deforestation

Johannes Winckler

Quentin Lejeune

Christian H. Reick Julia Pongratz

Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 46 No. 2 pp. 745-755 · American Geophysical Union (AGU)

View at Publisher Save 10.1029/2018gl080211

Abstract

AbstractDeforestation influences surface temperature locally (“local effects”), but also at neighboring or remote regions (“nonlocal effects”). Observations indicate that local effects induce a warming in most locations, while many climate models show a global mean cooling when simulating global deforestation. We show that a nonlocal cooling in models, which is excluded from observations, may strongly contribute to these conflicting results. For the MPI‐ESM, the globally averaged nonlocal cooling exceeds the globally averaged local warming by a factor of three, for global deforestation but also for realistic areal extents and spatial distributions of deforestation. Furthermore, the globally averaged nonlocal effects dominate the local effects in realistic scenarios across a range of climate models. We conclude that observations alone are not sufficient to capture the full biogeophysical effects, and climate models are needed to better understand and quantify the full effects of deforestation before they are considered in strategies for climate mitigation.

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References

Details

Published: Jan 16, 2019
Vol/Issue: 46(2)
Pages: 745-755
License: View

Authors

J

Johannes Winckler

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany; International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modeling Hamburg Germany; Now at Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Enviro nnement Gif‐sur‐Yvette France

Q

Quentin Lejeune

Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH‐Zürich Zurich Switzerland; Now at Climate Analytics Berlin Germany

C

Christian H. Reick

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany

J

Julia Pongratz

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany; Ludwig‐Maximilians‐Universität München Munich Germany

Funding

Emmy Noether Programm Award: PO1751

Cite This Article

Johannes Winckler, Quentin Lejeune, Christian H. Reick, et al. (2019). Nonlocal Effects Dominate the Global Mean Surface Temperature Response to the Biogeophysical Effects of Deforestation. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(2), 745-755. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl080211

Nonlocal Effects Dominate the Global Mean Surface Temperature Response to the Biogeophysical Effects of Deforestation

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