Twenty‐First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios

B. I. Cook; J. S. Mankin; K. Marvel; A. P. Williams; J. E. Smerdon; K. J. Anchukaitis

doi:10.1029/2019ef001461

journal article Open Access Jun 01, 2020

Twenty‐First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios

B. I. Cook

Earth's Future Vol. 8 No. 6 · American Geophysical Union (AGU)

View at Publisher Save 10.1029/2019ef001461

Abstract

AbstractThere is strong evidence that climate change will increase drought risk and severity, but these conclusions depend on the regions, seasons, and drought metrics being considered. We analyze changes in drought across the hydrologic cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff) in projections from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multimodel ensemble shows robust drying in the mean state across many regions and metrics by the end of the 21st century, even following the more aggressive mitigation pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5). Regional hotspots with strong drying include western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, the Amazon, southern Africa, China, Southeast Asia, and Australia. Compared to SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5, however, the severity of drying in the lower warming scenarios is substantially reduced and further precipitation declines in many regions are avoided. Along with drying in the mean state, the risk of the historically most extreme drought events also increases with warming, by 200–300% in some regions. Soil moisture and runoff drying in CMIP6 is more robust, spatially extensive, and severe than precipitation, indicating an important role for other temperature‐sensitive drought processes, including evapotranspiration and snow. Given the similarity in drought responses between CMIP5 and CMIP6, we speculate that both generations of models are subject to similar uncertainties, including vegetation processes, model representations of precipitation, and the degree to which model responses to warming are consistent with observations. These topics should be further explored to evaluate whether CMIP6 models offer reasons to have increased confidence in drought projections.

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Details

Published: Jun 01, 2020
Vol/Issue: 8(6)
License: View

Authors

B

B. I. Cook

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York NY USA; Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USA

J

J. S. Mankin

Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USA; Department of Geography Dartmouth College Hanover NH USA

K

K. Marvel

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York NY USA; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics Columbia University New York NY USA

A

A. P. Williams

Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USA

J

J. E. Smerdon

Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USA

K

K. J. Anchukaitis

Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USA; School of Geography and Development University of Arizona Tucson AZ USA; Laboratory of Tree‐Ring Research University of ArizonaTucson, AZ, USA; Department of Geosciences University of Arizona Tucson AZ USA

Cite This Article

B. I. Cook, J. S. Mankin, K. Marvel, et al. (2020). Twenty‐First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios. Earth's Future, 8(6). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001461

Twenty‐First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios

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