Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends

Patricio Grassini; Kent M. Eskridge; Kenneth G. Cassman

doi:10.1038/ncomms3918

journal article Open Access Dec 17, 2013

Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends

Patricio Grassini

Kent M. Eskridge Kenneth G. Cassman

Nature Communications Vol. 4 No. 1 · Springer Science and Business Media LLC

View at Publisher Save 10.1038/ncomms3918

Abstract

AbstractFood security and land required for food production largely depend on rate of yield gain of major cereal crops. Previous projections of food security are often more optimistic than what historical yield trends would support. Many econometric projections of future food production assume compound rates of yield gain, which are not consistent with historical yield trends. Here we provide a framework to characterize past yield trends and show that linear trajectories adequately describe past yield trends, which means the relative rate of gain decreases over time. Furthermore, there is evidence of yield plateaus or abrupt decreases in rate of yield gain, including rice in eastern Asia and wheat in northwest Europe, which account for 31% of total global rice, wheat and maize production. Estimating future food production capacity would benefit from an analysis of past crop yield trends based on a robust statistical analysis framework that evaluates historical yield trajectories and plateaus.

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Details

Published: Dec 17, 2013
Vol/Issue: 4(1)
License: View

Authors

P

Patricio Grassini

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583-0915;

K

Kent M. Eskridge

Department of Statistics, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA

K

Kenneth G. Cassman

Nebraska Center for Energy Sciences Research, Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska 68583;

Cite This Article

Patricio Grassini, Kent M. Eskridge, Kenneth G. Cassman (2013). Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends. Nature Communications, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms3918

Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends

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