New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon

Frances C. Moore; Uris Baldos; Thomas Hertel; Delavane Diaz

doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01792-x

journal article Open Access Nov 20, 2017

New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon

Frances C. Moore

Uris Baldos Thomas Hertel Delavane Diaz

Nature Communications Vol. 8 No. 1 · Springer Science and Business Media LLC

View at Publisher Save 10.1038/s41467-017-01792-x

Abstract

AbstractDespite substantial advances in climate change impact research in recent years, the scientific basis for damage functions in economic models used to calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC) is either undocumented, difficult to trace, or based on a small number of dated studies. Here we present new damage functions based on the current scientific literature and introduce these into an integrated assessment model (IAM) in order to estimate a new SCC. We focus on the agricultural sector, use two methods for determining the yield impacts of warming, and the GTAP CGE model to calculate the economic consequences of yield shocks. These new damage functions reveal far more adverse agricultural impacts than currently represented in IAMs. Impacts in the agriculture increase from net benefits of $2.7 ton−1CO2to net costs of $8.5 ton−1, leading the total SCC to more than double.

Topics

No keywords indexed for this article. Browse by subject →

References

48

[1]

IPCC. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2013).

[2]

NAS. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide (National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2017).

[3]

IAWG Technical Support Document: Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis under Executive Order 12866 Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC (2013).

[4]

Revisiting the social cost of carbon

William D. Nordhaus

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2017 10.1073/pnas.1609244114

[5]

Schlatter, L. Findings of Fact, Conclusions, and Recommendations: Carbon Dioxide Values (2016). State of Minnesota, Office of Administrative HearingsSt Paul, MN

[6]

State of California, Assembly Bill 197 (2016).

[7]

Larson, A. Subsidies Proposed for New York’s Upstate Power Plants. Available at: http://www.powermag.com/subsidies-proposed-for-new-yorks-upstate-nuclear-power-plants/. (Accessed: 1st September 2016) (2016)

[8]

Burke, M. et al. Opportunities for advances in climate change economics. Science 352, 292–293 (2016). 10.1126/science.aad9634

[9]

Pindyck, R. S. Climate change policy: what do the models tell us? J. Econ. Lit. 51, 860–872 (2013). 10.1257/jel.51.3.860

[10]

Revesz, R. et al. Improve economic models of climate change. Nature 508, 173–175 (2014). 10.1038/508173a

[11]

Stern, N. Economics: current climate models are grossly misleading. Nature 530, 407–409 (2016). 10.1038/530407a

[12]

Social and economic impacts of climate

Tamma A. Carleton, Solomon M. Hsiang

Science 2016 10.1126/science.aad9837

[13]

IPCC. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group 2 Contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (eds Field, C. B. et al.) (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2014).

[14]

Hsiang, S. et al. Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science 356, 1362–1369 (2017). 10.1126/science.aal4369

[15]

Houser, T., Hsiang, S., Kopp, R. & Larsen, K. Economic Risks of Climate Change: an American Prospectus (Columbia University Press, New York, 2015).

[16]

Challinor, A. J. et al. A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 287–291 (2014). 10.1038/nclimate2153

[17]

Porter, J. R. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group 2 Contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, Ch. 7 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2014).

[18]

Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

Cynthia Rosenzweig, Joshua Elliott, Delphine Deryng et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2014 10.1073/pnas.1222463110

[19]

Asseng, S. et al. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nat. Clim. Chang. 5, 143–147 (2014). 10.1038/nclimate2470

[20]

Long, S. P., Ainsworth, E. a., Leakey, A. D. B., Nösberger, J. & Ort, D. R. Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations. Science 312, 1918–1921 (2006). 10.1126/science.1114722

[21]

Photosynthesis, Productivity, and Yield of Maize Are Not Affected by Open-Air Elevation of CO2 Concentration in the Absence of Drought

Andrew D.B. Leakey, Martin Uribelarrea, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth et al.

Plant Physiology 2006 10.1104/pp.105.073957

[22]

Lobell, D. Climate change adaptation in crop production: Beware of illusions. Glob. Food Sec. 3, 72–76 (2014). 10.1016/j.gfs.2014.05.002

[23]

Hertel, T. W. Global Trade Analysis: Models and Applications (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1997).

[24]

Narayanan, B., Aguiar, A. & McDougall, R. Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 9 Data Base (Center for Global Trade Analysis, West Lafayette, IN, 2015).

[25]

Hertel, T. W. & Randhir, T. O. Trade liberalization as a vehicle for adapting to global warming. Agric. Resour. Econ. Rev. 29, 159–172 (2000). 10.1017/s1068280500005293

[26]

Nelson, G. C. et al. Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 111, 3274–3279 (2014). 10.1073/pnas.1222465110

[27]

Anthoff, D. & Tol, R. S. J. FUNDv3.9 Scientific Documentation. Available at: http://www.fund-model.org/versions (2014).

[28]

Rose, S. K., Diaz, D. B. & Blanford, G. J. Understanding the social cost of carbon: a model diagnostic and inter-comparison study. Climate Change Econ. 08, 1750009 (2017). 10.1142/s2010007817500099

[29]

Hope, C. W. The PAGE09 Integrated Assessment Model: A Technical Description. Cambridge Judge Business School Working Paper (2011).

[30]

Nordhaus, W. D. & Sztorc, P. DICE 2013R: Introduction and User’s Manual (2013).

[31]

MPUC. In the Matter of the Further Investigation into Environmental and Socioeconomic Costs Under Minnesota Statutes Section 216B.24222, Subdivision 3 (2016).

[32]

U.S. Court of Appeals, Zero Zone, Inc. et al., v. United States Department of Energy, et al. (2016).

[33]

FAO. FAOSTAT, V.3. Available at: faostat3.fao.org. (2016).

[34]

Wilcox, J. & Makowski, D. A meta-analysis of the predicted effects of climate change on wheat yields using simulation studies. Food Crops Res. 156, 180–190 (2014).

[35]

Crop planting dates: an analysis of global patterns

William J. Sacks, Delphine Deryng, Jonathan A. Foley et al.

Global Ecology and Biogeography 2010 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00551.x

[36]

CRU. Temperature Data. Available at: http://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/ (2016).

[37]

Monfreda, C., Ramankutty, N. & Foley, J. A. Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 22, n/a–n/a (2008). 10.1029/2007gb002947

[38]

Tubiello, F. N. et al. Crop response to elevated CO2 and world food supply. A comment on ‘ Food for Thought…’ by Long et al., Science 312: 1918–1921, 2006. 26, 215–223 (2007). 10.1016/j.eja.2006.10.002

[39]

Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Bull Am. Meteorol. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1 (2012). 10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1

[40]

KNMI. Climate Explorer. Available at: climexp.knmi.nl (2015).

[41]

Leakey, A. D. B. et al. Elevated CO2 effects on plant carbon, nitrogen, and water relations: six important lessons from FACE. J. Exp. Bot. 60, 2859–2876 (2009). 10.1093/jxb/erp096

[42]

Reich, P. B., Hobbie, S. E. & Lee, T. D. Plant growth enhancement by elevated CO2 eliminated by joint water and nitrogen limitation. Nat. Geosci. 7, 920–924 (2014). 10.1038/ngeo2284

[43]

Mueller, N. D. et al. Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management. Nature 490, 254–257 (2012). 10.1038/nature11420

[44]

Valenzuela, E., Hertel, T. W., Keeney, R. & Reimer, J. J. Assessing global computable general equilibrium model validity using agricultural price volatility. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 89, 383–397 (2007). 10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.00977.x

[45]

Arndt, C. An Introduction to Systematic Sensitivity Analysis via Gaussian Quadrature. Purdue University, West Lafayette IN (1996).

[46]

DeVuyst, E. A. & Preckel, P. V. Sensitivity analysis revisted: a quadrature-based approach. J. Policy Model 19, 175–185 (1997). 10.1016/0161-8938(95)00145-x

[47]

Anthoff, D. & Tol, R. S. J. FUNDv3.8 Scientific Documentation. Available at www.fund-model.org/versions (2014).

[48]

Economic aspects of global warming in a post-Copenhagen environment

William D. Nordhaus

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2010 10.1073/pnas.1005985107

Cited By

148

Global warming and heat extremes to enhance inflationary pressures

Maximilian Kotz, Friderike Kuik · 2024

Communications Earth & Environm...

The involvement of organic acids in soil fertility, plant health and environment sustainability

Satyavir S. Sindhu, Anju Sehrawat · 2022

Archiv f�r Mikrobiologie

Animal-based foods have high social and climate costs

Frank Errickson, Kevin Kuruc · 2021

Nature Food

Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5

James Rising, Naresh Devineni · 2020

Nature Communications

Moist Heat Stress on a Hotter Earth

Jonathan R. Buzan, Matthew Huber · 2020

Annual Review of Earth and Planetar...

Quantifying Economic Damages from Climate Change

Maximilian Auffhammer · 2018

Journal of Economic Perspectives

Quantifying the economic risks of climate change

Delavane Diaz, Frances Moore · 2017

Nature Climate Change

Metrics

148

Citations

48

References

Details

Published: Nov 20, 2017
Vol/Issue: 8(1)
License: View

Authors

Cite This Article

Frances C. Moore, Uris Baldos, Thomas Hertel, et al. (2017). New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon. Nature Communications, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01792-x

New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon

You May Also Like