Development and validation of a risk prediction model for end-stage renal disease in patients with type 2 diabetes

Cheng-Chieh Lin; Chia-Ing Li; Chiu-Shong Liu; Wen-Yuan Lin; Chih-Hsueh Lin; Sing-Yu Yang; Tsai-Chung Li

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-09243-9

journal article Open Access Aug 31, 2017

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for end-stage renal disease in patients with type 2 diabetes

Cheng-Chieh Lin Chia-Ing Li Chiu-Shong Liu Wen-Yuan Lin

Chih-Hsueh Lin Sing-Yu Yang Tsai-Chung Li

Scientific Reports Vol. 7 No. 1 · Springer Science and Business Media LLC

View at Publisher Save 10.1038/s41598-017-09243-9

Abstract

AbstractThe aim of this study is to develop a prediction model for ESRD in patients with type 2 diabetes. A retrospective cohort study was conducted, consisting of 24,104 Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes. We adopted the procedures proposed by the Framingham Heart Study to develop a prediction model for ESRD. Participants were randomly assigned to the derivation and validation sets at a 2:1 ratio. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for model development. A total of 813 and 402 subjects (5.06% and 5.00%, respectively) developed ESRD in the derivation and validation sets over a mean follow-up period of 8.3 years. The risk-scoring systems included age, gender, age of diabetes onset, combined statuses of blood pressure and anti-hypertensive medication use, creatinine, variation in HbA1c, variation in systolic blood pressure, diabetes retinopathy, albuminuria, anti-diabetes medications, and combined statuses of hyperlipidemia and anti-hyperlipidemia medication use. The area under curves of 3-year, 5-year, and 8-year ESRD risks were 0.90, 0.86, and 0.81 in the derivation set, respectively. This risk score model can be used as screening for early prevention. The risk prediction for 3-year, 5-year, and 8-year period demonstrated good predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability.

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Published: Aug 31, 2017
Vol/Issue: 7(1)
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Cite This Article

Cheng-Chieh Lin, Chia-Ing Li, Chiu-Shong Liu, et al. (2017). Development and validation of a risk prediction model for end-stage renal disease in patients with type 2 diabetes. Scientific Reports, 7(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-09243-9

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for end-stage renal disease in patients with type 2 diabetes

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