Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point

Niklas Boers; Martin Rypdal

doi:10.1073/pnas.2024192118

journal article May 17, 2021

Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point

Niklas Boers

Martin Rypdal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 118 No. 21 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

View at Publisher Save 10.1073/pnas.2024192118

Abstract

SignificanceIt has been suggested that, in response to anthropogenic global warming, the Greenland Ice Sheet may reach a tipping point beyond which its current configuration would become unstable. A crucial nonlinear mechanism for the existence of this tipping point is the positive melt-elevation feedback: Melting reduces ice sheet height, exposing the ice sheet surface to warmer temperatures, which further accelerates melting. We reveal early-warning signals for a forthcoming critical transition from ice-core-derived height reconstructions and infer that the western Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing stability in response to rising temperatures. We show that the melt-elevation feedback is likely to be responsible for the observed destabilization. Our results suggest substantially enhanced melting in the near future.

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Metrics

116

Citations

45

References

Details

Published: May 17, 2021
Vol/Issue: 118(21)
License: View

Authors

N

Niklas Boers

Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Freie Universität Berlin, 14195 Berlin, Germany;; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;; Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, United Kingdom;; Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, United Kingdom;

M

Martin Rypdal

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway

Funding

Volkswagen Foundation Award: n/a

European Commission Award: 820970

Cite This Article

Niklas Boers, Martin Rypdal (2021). Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(21). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024192118

Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point

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