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journal article Open Access Feb 05, 2024

A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses

Yanyan Cheng ORCID David M. Lawrence Ming Pan ORCID Baoqing Zhang ORCID Neal T. Graham ORCID Peter J. Lawrence ORCID Zhongfang Liu Xiaogang He ORCID
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 121 No. 7 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
View at Publisher Save 10.1073/pnas.2306775121
Abstract
Limiting global warming to 2 °C requires urgent action on land-based mitigation. This study evaluates the biogeochemical and biogeophysical implications of two alternative land-based mitigation scenarios that aim to achieve the same radiative forcing. One scenario is primarily driven by bioenergy expansion (SSP226Lu-BIOCROP), while the other involves re/afforestation (SSP126Lu-REFOREST). We find that overall, SSP126Lu-REFOREST is a more efficient strategy for removing CO
2
from the atmosphere by 2100, resulting in a net carbon sink of 242 ~ 483 PgC with smaller uncertainties compared to SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, which exhibits a wider range of −78 ~ 621 PgC. However, SSP126Lu-REFOREST leads to a relatively warmer planetary climate than SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, and this relative warming can be intensified in certain re/afforested regions where local climates are not favorable for tree growth. Despite the cooling effect on a global scale, SSP226Lu-BIOCROP reshuffles regional warming hotspots, amplifying summer temperatures in vulnerable tropical regions such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia. Our findings highlight the need for strategic land use planning to identify suitable regions for re/afforestation and bioenergy expansion, thereby improving the likelihood of achieving the intended climate mitigation outcomes.
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Details
Published
Feb 05, 2024
Vol/Issue
121(7)
License
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Authors
Y
Yanyan Cheng

Department of Industrial Systems Engineering and Management, National University of Singapore, 117576, Singapore

D
David M. Lawrence

Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305

M
Ming Pan

Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093

B
Baoqing Zhang

Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China

N
Neal T. Graham

Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740

P
Peter J. Lawrence

Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305

Z
Zhongfang Liu

State Key Laboratory of Marine Geology, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China

X
Xiaogang He

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, 117576, Singapore

Funding
Singapore Ministry of Education Award: A-0009297-01-00
Cite This Article
Yanyan Cheng, David M. Lawrence, Ming Pan, et al. (2024). A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121(7). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2306775121
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