The Private and External Costs of Germany’s Nuclear Phase-Out

Stephen Jarvis; Olivier Deschenes; Akshaya Jha

doi:10.1093/jeea/jvac007

journal article Feb 02, 2022

The Private and External Costs of Germany’s Nuclear Phase-Out

Stephen Jarvis Olivier Deschenes Akshaya Jha

Journal of the European Economic Association Vol. 20 No. 3 pp. 1311-1346 · Oxford University Press (OUP)

View at Publisher Save 10.1093/jeea/jvac007

Abstract

Abstract
Many countries have phased out nuclear power in response to concerns about nuclear waste and the risk of nuclear accidents. This paper examines the shutdown of more than half of the nuclear production capacity in Germany after the Fukushima accident in 2011. We use hourly data on power plant operations and a machine learning approach to estimate the impacts of the phase-out policy. We find that reductions in nuclear electricity production were offset primarily by increases in coal-fired production and net electricity imports. Our estimates of the social cost of the phase-out range from €3 to €8 billion per year. The majority of this cost comes from the increased mortality risk associated with exposure to the local air pollution emitted when burning fossil fuels. Policymakers would have to significantly overestimate the risk or cost of a nuclear accident to conclude that the benefits of the phase-out exceed its social costs. We discuss the likely role of behavioral biases in this setting, and highlight the importance of ensuring that policymakers and the public are informed about the health effects of local air pollution.

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Details

Published: Feb 02, 2022
Vol/Issue: 20(3)
Pages: 1311-1346
License: View

Authors

S

Stephen Jarvis

London School of Economics , UK

O

Olivier Deschenes

University of California Santa Barbara , USA

A

Akshaya Jha

Carnegie Mellon University , USA

Funding

University of Wyoming

Universität Regensburg

Cite This Article

Stephen Jarvis, Olivier Deschenes, Akshaya Jha (2022). The Private and External Costs of Germany’s Nuclear Phase-Out. Journal of the European Economic Association, 20(3), 1311-1346. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac007

The Private and External Costs of Germany’s Nuclear Phase-Out

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