False and missed alarms in seasonal forecasts affect individual adaptation choices

Katharina Hembach-Stunden; Tobias Vorlaufer; Stefanie Engel

doi:10.1093/qopen/qoad031

journal article Open Access Dec 05, 2023

False and missed alarms in seasonal forecasts affect individual adaptation choices

Katharina Hembach-Stunden Tobias Vorlaufer

Stefanie Engel

Q Open Vol. 4 No. 1 · Oxford University Press (OUP)

View at Publisher Save 10.1093/qopen/qoad031

Abstract

Abstract
Facing climate change, seasonal forecasts, and weather warnings are increasingly important to warn the public of the risk of extreme climate conditions. However, being confronted with inaccurate forecast systems may undermine individuals’ responsiveness in the long run. Using an online experiment, we assess how false alarm and missed alarm-prone forecast systems influence individuals’ adaptation behaviour. We show that exposure to false alarm-prone forecasts decreases investments if a warning is issued (the ‘cry-wolf effect’). Exposure to missed alarm-prone forecasts increases adaptation investments if no warning, but also if a warning has been issued. Yet, individuals exposed to both false and missed alarm-prone forecasts still adjust their adaptation investments depending on the forecasted probability of extreme climate conditions. Individuals with missed alarm-prone forecasts are, however, less sensitive to the forecasted probability if a warning has been issued. In case of low probability warnings, overshooting investments in adaptation hence becomes more likely.

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Metrics

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Citations

48

References

Details

Published: Dec 05, 2023
Vol/Issue: 4(1)
License: View

Authors

K

Katharina Hembach-Stunden

School of Business Administration and Economics and Institute for Environmental Systems Research (IUSF), Osnabrueck University , Osnabrück, Germany

T

Tobias Vorlaufer

Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) , Working Group Governance of Ecosystem Services, Müncheberg, Germany

S

Stefanie Engel

School of Business Administration and Economics and Institute for Environmental Systems Research (IUSF), Osnabrueck University , Osnabrück, Germany

Funding

Ministry of Science and Culture of Lower Saxony

Cite This Article

Katharina Hembach-Stunden, Tobias Vorlaufer, Stefanie Engel (2023). False and missed alarms in seasonal forecasts affect individual adaptation choices. Q Open, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.1093/qopen/qoad031

False and missed alarms in seasonal forecasts affect individual adaptation choices

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