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journal article Mar 22, 2014

Increased temperature variation poses a greater risk to species than climate warming

David A. Vasseur John P. DeLong Benjamin Gilbert ORCID Hamish S. Greig Christopher D. G. Harley Kevin S. McCann Van Savage Tyler D. Tunney Mary I. O'Connor
Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences Vol. 281 No. 1779 pp. 20132612 · The Royal Society
View at Publisher Save 10.1098/rspb.2013.2612
Abstract
Increases in the frequency, severity and duration of temperature extremes are anticipated in the near future. Although recent work suggests that changes in temperature variation will have disproportionately greater effects on species than changes to the mean, much of climate change research in ecology has focused on the impacts of mean temperature change. Here, we couple fine-grained climate projections (2050–2059) to thermal performance data from 38 ectothermic invertebrate species and contrast projections with those of a simple model. We show that projections based on mean temperature change alone differ substantially from those incorporating changes to the variation, and to the mean and variation in concert. Although most species show increases in performance at greater mean temperatures, the effect of mean and variance change together yields a range of responses, with temperate species at greatest risk of performance declines. Our work highlights the importance of using fine-grained temporal data to incorporate the full extent of temperature variation when assessing and projecting performance.
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Metrics
810
Citations
50
References
Details
Published
Mar 22, 2014
Vol/Issue
281(1779)
Pages
20132612
License
View
Authors
D
David A. Vasseur

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA

J
John P. DeLong

School of Biological Sciences, University of Nebraska Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68588, USA

B
Benjamin Gilbert

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5S 3G5

H
Hamish S. Greig

School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand; School of Biology and Ecology, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA

C
Christopher D. G. Harley

Department of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada V6T 1Z4

K
Kevin S. McCann

Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada N1G 2W1

V
Van Savage

Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA; Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA

T
Tyler D. Tunney

Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada N1G 2W1

M
Mary I. O'Connor

Department of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada V6T 1Z4

Cite This Article
David A. Vasseur, John P. DeLong, Benjamin Gilbert, et al. (2014). Increased temperature variation poses a greater risk to species than climate warming. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 281(1779), 20132612. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.2612
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