Abstract
Abstract

The global climate is undergoing unprecedented changes, posing significant threats to species persistence. However, the spatiotemporal impacts on genetic diversity remain poorly understood, hindering species conservation and management. Walnuts, generally referred to as
Juglans regia
and
J. sigillata
, are economically vital in Asia, but little is known about their genetic origins and how the species will be affected by future climate change. Using 31 microsatellites, we genotyped 5282 individuals from 233 populations of walnuts in Asia. We assessed genetic diversity patterns and demographic history and investigated potential future genetic erosion risks. Genetic diversity of walnuts was high in the Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains. The 2 species diverged during the Pleistocene (around 1.41 Ma BP), and
J. regia
contained 2 genetic groups (JR1 and JR2). The JR2 group had the lowest diversity and likely arrived in northern China around 9.77 ka BP, perhaps via human transport. The Western Himalaya likely served both as a glacial refugium and the center of origin for
J. regia
, and the Eastern Himalaya appears to have been the refugium for
J. sigillata
. The 2 species appear to have hybridized in the Central Himalaya and the Sichuan basin and surroundings, forming two distinct hybrid zones. Our results indicate that genetic diversity will be reduced by up to 9.03% due to range loss under future climate change and dramatic genetic structure turnover in the Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains. In situ conservation in the Himalaya is essential for safeguarding genetic diversity and adaptive potential in Asian walnuts, while ex situ preservation of genetically unique wild germplasm, coupled with its integration into breeding programs, will enhance climate resilience. The findings advance our understanding of the origin of Asian walnuts and how future climatic change may affect their genetic diversity, offering a model for conservation and breeding strategies in other tree species facing similar threats.
Topics

No keywords indexed for this article. Browse by subject →

References
147
[3]
spThin: an R package for spatial thinning of species occurrence records for use in ecological niche models

Matthew E. Aiello‐Lammens, Robert A. Boria, Aleksandar Radosavljevic et al.

Ecography 10.1111/ecog.01132
[7]
Ensemble forecasting of species distributions

M ARAUJO, M NEW

Trends in Ecology & Evolution 10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.010
[15]
Bottema S. "Late Quaternary vegetation and climate of southwestern Turkey. Part II" Palaeohistoria (1984)
[16]
Brauer C. J. "Natural hybridization reduces vulnerability to climate change" Nature Climate Change (2023)
[31]
Dode L. A. "Contribution à l'étude du genre Juglans" Bulletin de la Societé Dendrologique de France (1906)
[32]
Doyle J. J. "A rapid DNA isolation procedure for small quantities of fresh leaf tissue" Phytochemical Bulletin (1987)
[33]
STRUCTURE HARVESTER: a website and program for visualizing STRUCTURE output and implementing the Evanno method

Dent A. Earl, Bridgett M. vonHoldt

Conservation Genetics Resources 10.1007/s12686-011-9548-7
[34]
Detecting the number of clusters of individuals using the software structure: a simulation study

G. EVANNO, S. REGNAUT, J. Goudet

Molecular Ecology 10.1111/j.1365-294x.2005.02553.x
[36]
Inference of Population Structure Using Multilocus Genotype Data: Linked Loci and Correlated Allele Frequencies

Daniel Falush, Matthew Stephens, Jonathan K Pritchard

Genetics 10.1093/genetics/164.4.1567
[38]
FAOSTAT. (2022).FAO Statistics division.https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL
[39]
Felsenstein J. "PHYLIP: Phylogeny inference package (Version 3.2)" Cladistics (1989)
[41]
WorldClim 2: new 1‐km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas

Stephen E. Fick, ROBERT J. HIJMANS

International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.5086
[42]
Fletcher R. J. "Towards a unified framework for connectivity that disentangles movement and mortality in space and time" Evolution Letters (2019)
[45]
FSTAT (Version 1.2): A Computer Program to Calculate F-Statistics

J. Goudet

Journal of Heredity 10.1093/oxfordjournals.jhered.a111627
[46]
hierfstat, a package for r to compute and test hierarchical F‐statistics

Jerome Goudet

Molecular Ecology Notes 10.1111/j.1471-8286.2004.00828.x
[47]
Graham A. (1972)
[49]

Showing 50 of 147 references

Metrics
4
Citations
147
References
Details
Published
Aug 20, 2025
Vol/Issue
40(1)
License
View
Authors
Funding
National Natural Science Foundation of China Award: 32170398
Natural Science Foundation of Yunnan Province Award: 202201AT070222
Cite This Article
Peng‐Zhen Fan, Guang‐Fu Zhu, Moses C. Wambulwa, et al. (2025). Genetic origins and climate‐induced erosion in economically important Asian walnuts. Conservation Biology, 40(1). https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.70125
Related

You May Also Like

Biological Consequences of Ecosystem Fragmentation: A Review

DENIS A. SAUNDERS, Richard J. Hobbs · 1991

2,756 citations

Habitat Loss and Extinction in the Hotspots of Biodiversity

Thomas M. Brooks, Russell A. Mittermeier · 2002

1,394 citations

Ecosystem Decay of Amazonian Forest Fragments: a 22‐Year Investigation

William F. Laurance, Thomas E. Lovejoy · 2002

1,297 citations