Conditions for successful range shifts under climate change: The role of species dispersal and landscape configuration

Jonatan Årevall; Regan Early; Alba Estrada; Uno Wennergren; Anna C. Eklöf

doi:10.1111/ddi.12793

journal article Jul 06, 2018

Conditions for successful range shifts under climate change: The role of species dispersal and landscape configuration

Jonatan Årevall Regan Early

Alba Estrada Uno Wennergren Anna C. Eklöf

Diversity and Distributions Vol. 24 No. 11 pp. 1598-1611 · Wiley

View at Publisher Save 10.1111/ddi.12793

Abstract

AbstractAimOngoing climate change is currently modifying the geographical location of areas that are climatically suitable for species. Understanding a species’ ability to successfully shift its geographical range would allow us to assess extinction risks and predict future community compositions. We investigate how habitat configuration impedes or promotes climate‐driven range shifts, given different speeds of climate change and dispersal abilities.LocationTheoretical, but illustrated with European examples.MethodsWe model how a species’ ability to track a directional shift in climatic conditions is affected by (a) species’ dispersal abilities; (b) speed of climatic shift; and (c) spatial arrangement of the habitat. Our modelling framework includes within‐and between‐patch population dynamics and uses ecologically realistic habitat distributions and dispersal scenarios (verified with data from a set of European mammal species) and, as such, is an improvement of classical range shift models.ResultsIn landscapes with a homogeneous distribution of suitable habitats, all but the least dispersive species will be able to range shift. However, species with high dispersal ability will have lower population densities after range shift. In heterogeneous landscapes species’ ability to range shift is far more variable and heavily dependent on the habitat configuration. This means that landscape configuration in combination with the speed of climate change and species dispersal abilities give rise to nonlinear effects on population sizes and survival after a climatic shift.Main conclusionsOur analyses point out the importance of accounting for the interplay of species dispersal and the landscape configuration when estimating future climate impact on species. These results link ecologically important attributes of both species and their landscapes to outcomes of species range shift, and thereby long‐term persistence of ecological communities.

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Details

Published: Jul 06, 2018
Vol/Issue: 24(11)
Pages: 1598-1611
License: View

Authors

J

Jonatan Årevall

Division of Theoretical Biology Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology Linköping University Linköping Sweden

R

Regan Early

Centre for Ecology and Conservation University of Exeter Penryn Campus Cornwall UK

A

Alba Estrada

Research Unit of Biodiversity (UMIB, UO‐CSIC‐PA) Oviedo University – Campus Mieres Oviedo Spain

U

Uno Wennergren

Division of Theoretical Biology Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology Linköping University Linköping Sweden

A

Anna C. Eklöf

Division of Theoretical Biology Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology Linköping University Linköping Sweden

Funding

Vetenskapsrådet Award: 2016‐04919

Cite This Article

Jonatan Årevall, Regan Early, Alba Estrada, et al. (2018). Conditions for successful range shifts under climate change: The role of species dispersal and landscape configuration. Diversity and Distributions, 24(11), 1598-1611. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12793

Conditions for successful range shifts under climate change: The role of species dispersal and landscape configuration

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