Forecasting habitat and connectivity for pronghorn across the Great Basin ecoregion

Katherine A. Zeller; Cody A. Schroeder; Ho Yi Wan; Gail Collins; Kristin Denryter; Andrew F. Jakes; Samuel A. Cushman

doi:10.1111/ddi.13402

journal article Open Access Aug 23, 2021

Forecasting habitat and connectivity for pronghorn across the Great Basin ecoregion

Katherine A. Zeller

Cody A. Schroeder Ho Yi Wan

Gail Collins Kristin Denryter Andrew F. Jakes Samuel A. Cushman

Diversity and Distributions Vol. 27 No. 12 pp. 2315-2329 · Wiley

View at Publisher Save 10.1111/ddi.13402

Abstract

AbstractAimsIn the sagebrush ecosystems of the western United States, identifying and enhancing habitat for large ungulates has become an increased priority for many management agencies, as indicated by Department of Interior Secretarial Order 3362. Estimating and understanding current and future habitat suitability and connectivity is important for successful long‐term management of these species.LocationGreat Basin ecoregion, western USA.MethodsWe focussed on pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in the Great Basin ecoregion and used a variety of data sources (GPS telemetry, aerial surveys, observation locations) to develop multi‐scale ensemble habitat suitability models for the current and two future time steps (years 2050 and 2070). We also developed dynamic resistant kernels to model pronghorn connectivity. We combined the habitat suitability and connectivity outputs to derive and quantify changes in pronghorn habitat networks through time as well as identify areas that are resilient to climate and land use change.ResultsWe observed a 33.4% decline in highly suitable pronghorn habitat by 2070, assuming a high carbon emission scenario. Patches of suitable habitat reduced in number and size, whilst the distance amongst patches increased, indicating elevated importance of connectivity for pronghorn in the future. Future connectivity decreased to a greater degree than habitat suitability (47.2%–80.0%, depending on the pronghorn movement threshold used). We also found highly suitable habitat (70%) to be more resilient to climate change than areas of connectivity (10%–15%).Main conclusionsOur results show a loss of high‐quality pronghorn habitat and areas of connectivity with projected climate change. Connectivity was more sensitive than habitat, indicating connectivity may become a limiting factor for pronghorn populations in the Great Basin. These results can help managers prioritize resource investments and conservation efforts in areas most likely to be successful towards long‐term pronghorn conservation.

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References

Details

Published: Aug 23, 2021
Vol/Issue: 27(12)
Pages: 2315-2329
License: View

Authors

K

Katherine A. Zeller

U.S. Forest Service Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute Rocky Mountain Research Station Missoula MT USA

C

Cody A. Schroeder

Nevada Department of Wildlife Reno NV USA

H

Ho Yi Wan

Department of Wildlife Humboldt State University CA USA

G

Gail Collins

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Sheldon‐Hart Mountain National Wildlife Refuge Complex Lakeview OR USA

K

Kristin Denryter

California Department of Fish and Wildlife CA USA

A

Andrew F. Jakes

National Wildlife Federation N. Rockies Missoula MT USA

S

Samuel A. Cushman

U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Flagstaff AZ USA

Cite This Article

Katherine A. Zeller, Cody A. Schroeder, Ho Yi Wan, et al. (2021). Forecasting habitat and connectivity for pronghorn across the Great Basin ecoregion. Diversity and Distributions, 27(12), 2315-2329. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13402

Forecasting habitat and connectivity for pronghorn across the Great Basin ecoregion

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