Addressing uncertainty when projecting marine species' distributions under climate change

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to project terrestrial species' responses to climate change and are increasingly being used for similar objectives in the marine realm. These projections are critically needed to develop strategies for resource management and the conservation of marine ecosystems. SDMs are a powerful and necessary tool; however, they are subject to many sources of uncertainty, both quantifiable and unquantifiable. To ensure that SDM projections are informative for management and conservation decisions, sources of uncertainty must be considered and properly addressed. Here we provide ten overarching guidelines that will aid researchers to identify, minimize, and account for uncertainty through the entire model development process, from the formation of a study question to the presentation of results. These guidelines focus on correlative models and were developed at an international workshop attended by over 50 researchers and practitioners. Although our guidelines are broadly applicable across biological realms, we provide particular focus to the challenges and uncertainties associated with projecting the impacts of climate change on marine species and ecosystems.

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References

Details

Published: Sep 13, 2023
Vol/Issue: 2023(11)
License: View

Authors

S

Sarah C. Davies

Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Nanaimo BC Canada

P

Patrick L. Thompson

Institute of Ocean Science, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Sidney BC Canada; Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia BC Canada

C

Catalina Gomez

Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Dartmouth Nova Scotia Canada

J

Jessica Nephin

Institute of Ocean Science, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Sidney BC Canada

A

Anders Knudby

Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Ottawa Ottawa ON Canada

A

Ashley E. Park

Institute of Ocean Science, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Sidney BC Canada

S

Sarah K. Friesen

Institute of Ocean Science, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Sidney BC Canada

L

Laura J. Pollock

Department of Biology, McGill University Montreal QC Canada

E

Emily M. Rubidge

Institute of Ocean Science, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Sidney BC Canada; Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia Vancouver BC Canada

S

Sean C. Anderson

Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Nanaimo BC Canada; Simon Fraser University, Department of Mathematics Burnaby BC Canada

J

Josephine C. Iacarella

Cultus Lake Labs, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Cultus Lake BC Canada

D

Devin A. Lyons

Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Dartmouth NS Canada

A

Andrew MacDonald

Département de biologie, Université de Sherbrooke Sherbrooke QC Canada

A

Andrew McMillan

Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Nanaimo BC Canada

E

Eric J. Ward

Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Seattle WA USA

A

Amber M. Holdsworth

Institute of Ocean Science, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Sidney BC Canada

N

Neil Swart

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada Victoria BC Canada

J

Jeff Price

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich UK

K

Karen L. Hunter

Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Nanaimo BC Canada

Cite This Article

Sarah C. Davies, Patrick L. Thompson, Catalina Gomez, et al. (2023). Addressing uncertainty when projecting marine species' distributions under climate change. Ecography, 2023(11). https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.06731

Addressing uncertainty when projecting marine species' distributions under climate change

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