Italy's long‐term economic performance: GDP estimates from 1300 to 1861

GIOVANNI FEDERICO; Alessandro Nuvolari; Leonardo Ridolfi; Michelangelo Vasta

doi:10.1111/ehr.70059

journal article Oct 22, 2025

Italy's long‐term economic performance: GDP estimates from 1300 to 1861

GIOVANNI FEDERICO

Alessandro Nuvolari Leonardo Ridolfi

Michelangelo Vasta

The Economic History Review · Wiley

View at Publisher Save 10.1111/ehr.70059

Abstract

Abstract
We present new demand‐side estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita for Italy and its two macro‐areas, Centre‐North and South, for the pre‐industrial period (1328–1861) on the basis of a novel dataset including almost 100,000 observations from 169 different locations. Our estimates confirm the chronology of the ‘Little Divergence’ relative to the Netherlands and England. Italy maintained its leading position relative to the other European countries and was overtaken by France and Germany only in the first half of the nineteenth century. GDP per capita trends differed between Centre‐North and South determining a ‘slow‐motion’ divergence of the South from the fifteenth century to political unification.

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Published: Oct 22, 2025
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Authors

G

GIOVANNI FEDERICO

Social Sciences Division, New York University, Abu Dhabi & CEPR

A

Alessandro Nuvolari

Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna & CEPR

L

Leonardo Ridolfi

Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Siena

M

Michelangelo Vasta

Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Siena & CEPR

Cite This Article

GIOVANNI FEDERICO, Alessandro Nuvolari, Leonardo Ridolfi, et al. (2025). Italy's long‐term economic performance: GDP estimates from 1300 to 1861. The Economic History Review. https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.70059

Italy's long‐term economic performance: GDP estimates from 1300 to 1861

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