The economic cost of conflict: Evidence from South Sudan

Joseph Mawejje; Patrick McSharry

doi:10.1111/rode.12792

journal article Jun 02, 2021

The economic cost of conflict: Evidence from South Sudan

Joseph Mawejje

Patrick McSharry

Review of Development Economics Vol. 25 No. 4 pp. 1969-1990 · Wiley

View at Publisher Save 10.1111/rode.12792

Abstract

AbstractThis study estimates the output loss in South Sudan as a result of the double shock of the protracted post‐independence conflict and macroeconomic crisis. Using the synthetic control method for comparative studies, the analysis suggests that the cumulative loss in the growth rate of real per‐capita gross domestic product (GDP) was 69.63% (or a yearly average of 15.65%) over the period 2012–2018. This resulted in an accumulated loss in the real per‐capita GDP of US$7,070 (yearly average of US$1,010) and an accumulated loss in the aggregate GDP of US$81.1 billion (yearly average of US$11.6 billion) over the same period. Consequently, South Sudan's real per‐capita GDP in 2018 was just a third of what it would have been in the absence of conflict. Moreover, we find that exports and investment were the main channels through which the economy was adversely impacted by the conflict. These results are robust to several placebo and robustness tests. Implications for future research are discussed.

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Details

Published: Jun 02, 2021
Vol/Issue: 25(4)
Pages: 1969-1990
License: View

Authors

J

Joseph Mawejje

The World Bank Juba South Sudan

P

Patrick McSharry

Carnegie Mellon University Africa Kigali Rwanda; African Centre of Excellence in Data Science University of Rwanda Kigali Rwanda; Oxford Man Institute of Quantitative Finance Oxford University Oxford UK

Cite This Article

Joseph Mawejje, Patrick McSharry (2021). The economic cost of conflict: Evidence from South Sudan. Review of Development Economics, 25(4), 1969-1990. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12792

The economic cost of conflict: Evidence from South Sudan

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