Projections of future forest degradation and CO
            2
            emissions for the Brazilian Amazon

Talita Oliveira Assis; Ana Paula D. Aguiar; Celso von Randow; Carlos A. Nobre

doi:10.1126/sciadv.abj3309

journal article Jun 17, 2022

Projections of future forest degradation and CO 2 emissions for the Brazilian Amazon

Talita Oliveira Assis

Ana Paula D. Aguiar

Celso von Randow

Carlos A. Nobre

Science Advances Vol. 8 No. 24 · American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

View at Publisher Save 10.1126/sciadv.abj3309

Abstract

In recent years, the area affected by forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon has frequently been higher than deforestation. From August 2006 to July 2019, the degraded area totaled 194,058 km
2
, representing almost two times the 99,630 km
2
deforested in the same period. The impacts of degradation include biodiversity loss and changes in the carbon stocks, affecting the CO
2
balance and future climate changes. This paper aims to explore socioeconomic and environmental factors that influence forest degradation, project future scenarios, and assess the impact on the regional carbon balance, combining forest degradation and deforestation-related processes (clear-cut deforestation and secondary vegetation dynamics). We show that, while net CO
2
emissions from 2020 to 2050 are 0.74 Gt CO
2
in the Sustainable scenario, this value reached 22.63 Gt CO
2
in the Fragmentation scenario, an increasingly plausible scenario given the recent trends in the region.

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Details

Published: Jun 17, 2022
Vol/Issue: 8(24)

Authors

T

Talita Oliveira Assis

National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, Brazil.

A

Ana Paula D. Aguiar

National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, Brazil.; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm, Sweden.

C

Celso von Randow

National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, Brazil.

C

Carlos A. Nobre

Institute for Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.

Cite This Article

Talita Oliveira Assis, Ana Paula D. Aguiar, Celso von Randow, et al. (2022). Projections of future forest degradation and CO 2 emissions for the Brazilian Amazon. Science Advances, 8(24). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abj3309

Projections of future forest degradation and CO 2 emissions for the Brazilian Amazon

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