Epidemic outcomes following government responses to COVID-19: Insights from nearly 100,000 models

Eran Bendavid; Chirag J. Patel

doi:10.1126/sciadv.adn0671

journal article Jun 07, 2024

Epidemic outcomes following government responses to COVID-19: Insights from nearly 100,000 models

Eran Bendavid

Chirag J. Patel

Science Advances Vol. 10 No. 23 · American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

View at Publisher Save 10.1126/sciadv.adn0671

Abstract

Government responses to COVID-19 are among the most globally impactful events of the 21st century. The extent to which responses—such as school closures—were associated with changes in COVID-19 outcomes remains unsettled. Multiverse analyses offer a systematic approach to testing a large range of models. We used daily data on 16 government responses in 181 countries in 2020–2021, and 4 outcomes—cases, infections, COVID-19 deaths, and all-cause excess deaths—to construct 98,404 analytic models. Among those, 42% suggest outcomes improved following more stringent responses (“helpful”). No subanalysis (e.g. limited to cases as outcome) demonstrated a preponderance of helpful or unhelpful associations. Among the 14 associations with
P
values < 1 × 10
−30
, 5 were helpful and 9 unhelpful. In summary, we find no patterns in the overall set of models that suggests a clear relationship between COVID-19 government responses and outcomes. Strong claims about government responses’ impacts on COVID-19 may lack empirical support.

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References

Details

Published: Jun 07, 2024
Vol/Issue: 10(23)

Authors

E

Eran Bendavid

Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.; Department of Health Policy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.

C

Chirag J. Patel

Department of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.

Cite This Article

Eran Bendavid, Chirag J. Patel (2024). Epidemic outcomes following government responses to COVID-19: Insights from nearly 100,000 models. Science Advances, 10(23). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adn0671

Epidemic outcomes following government responses to COVID-19: Insights from nearly 100,000 models

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