ENSO Predictability of a Fully Coupled GCM Model Using Singular Vector Analysis

Youmin Tang; Richard Kleeman; Sonya Miller

doi:10.1175/jcli3771.1

journal article Jul 15, 2006

ENSO Predictability of a Fully Coupled GCM Model Using Singular Vector Analysis

Youmin Tang

Richard Kleeman Sonya Miller

Journal of Climate Vol. 19 No. 14 pp. 3361-3377 · American Meteorological Society

View at Publisher Save 10.1175/jcli3771.1

Abstract

Abstract
Using a recently developed method of computing climatically relevant singular vectors (SVs), the error growth properties of ENSO in a fully coupled global climate model are investigated. In particular, the authors examine in detail how singular vectors are influenced by the phase of ENSO cycle—the physical variable under consideration as well as the error norm deployed. Previous work using SVs for studying ENSO predictability has been limited to intermediate or hybrid coupled models.
The results show that the singular vectors share many of the properties already seen in simpler models. Thus, for example, the singular vector spectrum is dominated by one fastest growing member, regardless of the phase of ENSO cycle and the variable of perturbation or the error norm; in addition the growth rates of the singular vectors are very sensitive to the phase of the ENSO cycle, the variable of perturbation, and the error norm. This particular CGCM also displays some differences from simpler models; thus subsurface temperature optimal patterns are strongly sensitive to the phase of ENSO cycle, and at times an east–west dipole in the eastern tropical Pacific basin is seen. This optimal pattern also appears for SST when the error norm is defined using Niño-4. Simpler models consistently display a single-sign equatorial signature in the subsurface corresponding perhaps to the Wyrtki buildup of heat content before a warm event. Some deficiencies in the CGCM and their possible influences on SV growth are also discussed.

Topics

No keywords indexed for this article. Browse by subject →

References

41

[1]

Balmaseda "ENSO prediction using a dynamical ocean model coupled to statistical atmospheres." Tellus (1994) 10.3402/tellusa.v46i4.15495

[2]

Battisti "Dynamics and thermodynamics of a warming event in a coupled tropical atmosphere–ocean model." J. Atmos. Sci. (1988) 10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<2889:datoaw>2.0.co;2

[3]

Blumenthal "Predictability of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model." J. Climate (1991) 10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0766:poacom>2.0.co;2

[4]

Chang "Chaotic dynamics versus stochastic processes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models." Physica D (1996) 10.1016/0167-2789(96)00116-9

[5]

Chen "A study of the predictability of tropical Pacific SST in a coupled atmosphere–ocean model using singular vector analysis: The role of the annual cycle and the ENSO cycle." Mon. Wea. Rev. (1997) 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0831:asotpo>2.0.co;2

[6]

Fan "How predictability depends on the nature of uncertainty in initial conditions in a coupled model of ENSO." J. Climate (2000) 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3298:hpdotn>2.0.co;2

[7]

Ji "An improved coupled model for ENSO prediction and implications for ocean initialization. Part II: The coupled model." Mon. Wea. Rev. (1998) 10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1022:aicmfe>2.0.co;2

[8]

Kleeman "A theory for the limitation of ENSO predictability due to stochastic atmospheric transients." J. Atmos. Sci. (1997) 10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<0753:atftlo>2.0.co;2

[9]

Kleeman "The calculation of climatically relevant singular vectors in the presence of weather noise." J. Atmos. Sci. (2003) 10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<2856:tcocrs>2.0.co;2

[10]

Koster "The influence of land surface moisture on precipitation statistics." J. Climate (1996) 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2551:tiolsm>2.0.co;2

[11]

Latif "How much predictive skill is contained in the thermal structure of an oceanic GCM?" J. Phys. Oceanogr. (1992) 10.1175/1520-0485(1992)022<0951:hmpsic>2.0.co;2

[12]

Lorenz "A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model." Tellus (1965) 10.3402/tellusa.v17i3.9076

[13]

Moore "The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO." Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. (1996) 10.1002/qj.49712253409

[14]

Moore "The singular vectors of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO, Part I: Thermodynamics, energetics and error growth." Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. (1997) 10.1002/qj.49712354009

[15]

Moore "The singular vectors of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO, Part II: Sensitivity studies and dynamical interpretation." Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. (1997) 10.1002/qj.49712354010

[16]

Moore "Skill assessment for ENSO using ensemble prediction." Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. (1998) 10.1002/qj.49712454609

[17]

Moore "Stochastic forcing of ENSO by the intraseasonal oscillation." J. Climate (1999) 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1199:sfoebt>2.0.co;2

[18]

Moore "The role of air–sea interaction in controlling the optimal perturbations of low-frequency tropical coupled ocean–atmosphere modes." J. Climate (2003) 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0951:troasi>2.0.co;2

[19]

Neelin "Modes of interannual tropical ocean–atmosphere interaction—A unified view. Part II: Analytical results in the weak coupling limit." J. Atmos. Sci. (1993) 10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<3504:moitoi>2.0.co;2

[20]

Neelin "ENSO theory." J. Geophys. Res. (1998) 10.1029/97jc03424

[21]

Parameterization of Vertical Mixing in Numerical Models of Tropical Oceans

R. C. Pacanowski, S. G. H. Philander

Journal of Physical Oceanography 1981 10.1175/1520-0485(1981)011<1443:povmin>2.0.co;2

[22]

Palmer "Predicting uncertainty in forecast of weather and climate." Rep. Prog. Phys. (1999) 10.1088/0034-4885/63/2/201

[23]

Penland "The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies." J. Climate (1995) 10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1999:togots>2.0.co;2

[24]

Rienecker, M. , 2000: , The NASA seasonal-to-interannual prediction project (NSIPP) progress report. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 27 pp.

[25]

Schopf "A reduced-gravity isopycnal ocean model: Hindcasts of El Niño." Mon. Wea. Rev. (1995) 10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<2839:argiom>2.0.co;2

[26]

Strang "Linear Algebra and Its Applications." (1988)

[27]

Suarez, M. , 1996: Dynamical aspects of climate simulations using the GEOS General Circulation Model. NASA Tech. Memo. 104606, Vol. 10, 71 pp.

[28]

Tang "Hybrid coupled models of the tropical Pacific—I: Interannual variability." Climate Dyn. (2002) 10.1007/s00382-002-0230-3

[29]

Tang "A new strategy for SST assimilation for ENSO prediction." Geophys. Res. Lett. (2002) 10.1029/2002gl014860

[30]

Tang "A neural network atmospheric model for hybrid coupled modelling." Climate Dyn. (2001) 10.1007/s003820000119

[31]

Tang "SST assimilation experiments in a tropical Pacific Ocean model." J. Phys. Oceangr. (2004) 10.1175/3518.1

[32]

Thompson "Initial conditions for optimal growth in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model of ENSO." J. Atmos. Sci. (1998) 10.1175/1520-0469(1998)055<0537:icfogi>2.0.co;2

[33]

Thompson "A linear stochastic dynamical model of ENSO. Part I: Development." J. Climate (2000) 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2818:alsdmo>2.0.co;2

[34]

Thompson "A linear stochastic dynamical model of ENSO. Part II: Analysis." J. Climate (2001) 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0445:alsdmo>2.0.co;2

[35]

von Storch "Principal Oscillation Pattern analysis of the 30–60 day oscillation in a GCM equatorial troposphere." J. Geophys. Res. (1988) 10.1029/jd093id09p11022

[36]

Wu "Causes of low frequency North Atlantic SST variability in a coupled GCM." Geophys. Res. Lett. (2004) 10.1029/2004gl019548

[37]

Xue "On the prediction of ENSO: A study with a low order Markov model." Tellus (1994) 10.3402/tellusa.v46i4.15641

[38]

Predictability of a Coupled Model of ENSO Using Singular Vector Analysis. Part I: Optimal Growth in Seasonal Background and ENSO Cycles

Yan Xue, M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak

Monthly Weather Review 1997 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2043:poacmo>2.0.co;2

[39]

Xue "Predictability of a coupled model of ENSO using singular vector analysis. Part II: Optimal growth and forecast skill." Mon. Wea. Rev. (1997) 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2057:poacmo>2.0.co;2

[40]

Yuan "Inverse estimation of sea surface heat flux over the equatorial Pacific Ocean: Seasonal cycle." J. Geophys. Res. (2003) 10.1029/2002jc001367

[41]

Zebiak "A model El Niño–Southern Oscillation." Mon. Wea. Rev. (1987) 10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<2262:ameno>2.0.co;2

Metrics

41

Citations

41

References

Details

Published: Jul 15, 2006
Vol/Issue: 19(14)
Pages: 3361-3377

Authors

Y

Youmin Tang

Environmental Science and Engineering, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, British Columbia, Canada

R

Richard Kleeman

Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, New York

S

Sonya Miller

Science Applications International Corporation, and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

Cite This Article

Youmin Tang, Richard Kleeman, Sonya Miller (2006). ENSO Predictability of a Fully Coupled GCM Model Using Singular Vector Analysis. Journal of Climate, 19(14), 3361-3377. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3771.1

ENSO Predictability of a Fully Coupled GCM Model Using Singular Vector Analysis

You May Also Like