Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictability and Prediction of North American Climate—The Atlantic Influence

H. M. Van den Dool; Peitao Peng; Åke Johansson; Muthuvel Chelliah; Amir Shabbar; Suranjana Saha

doi:10.1175/jcli3942.1

journal article Dec 01, 2006

Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictability and Prediction of North American Climate—The Atlantic Influence

H. M. Van den Dool Peitao Peng Åke Johansson Muthuvel Chelliah Amir Shabbar Suranjana Saha

Journal of Climate Vol. 19 No. 23 pp. 6005-6024 · American Meteorological Society

View at Publisher Save 10.1175/jcli3942.1

Abstract

Abstract
The question of the impact of the Atlantic on North American (NA) seasonal prediction skill and predictability is examined. Basic material is collected from the literature, a review of seasonal forecast procedures in Canada and the United States, and some fresh calculations using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data.
The general impression is one of low predictability (due to the Atlantic) for seasonal mean surface temperature and precipitation over NA. Predictability may be slightly better in the Caribbean and the (sub)tropical Americas, even for precipitation. The NAO is widely seen as an agent making the Atlantic influence felt in NA. While the NAO is well established in most months, its prediction skill is limited. Year-round evidence for an equatorially displaced version of the NAO (named ED_NAO) carrying a good fraction of the variance is also found.
In general the predictability from the Pacific is thought to dominate over that from the Atlantic sector, which explains the minimal number of reported Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs that explore Atlantic-only impacts. Caveats are noted as to the question of the influence of a single predictor in a nonlinear environment with many predictors. Skill of a new one-tier global coupled atmosphere–ocean model system at NCEP is reviewed; limited skill is found in midlatitudes and there is modest predictability to look forward to.
There are several signs of enthusiasm in the community about using “trends” (low-frequency variations): (a) seasonal forecast tools include persistence of last 10 years’ averaged anomaly (relative to the official 30-yr climatology), (b) hurricane forecasts are based largely on recognizing a global multidecadal mode (which is similar to an Atlantic trend mode in SST), and (c) two recent papers, one empirical and one modeling, giving equal roles to the (North) Pacific and Atlantic in “explaining” variations in drought frequency over NA on a 20 yr or longer time scale during the twentieth century.

Topics

No keywords indexed for this article. Browse by subject →

References

94

[1]

Alexander "The Atmospheric Bridge: The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air–sea interaction over the global oceans." J. Climate (2002) 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2205:tabtio>2.0.co;2

[2]

Barnston "Linear statistical short-term climate predictive skill in the Northern Hemisphere." J. Climate (1994) 10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1513:lsstcp>2.0.co;2

[3]

Barnston "Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns." Mon. Wea. Rev. (1987) 10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:csapol>2.0.co;2

[4]

Barsugli "The basic effects of atmosphere–ocean thermal coupling on midlatitude variability." J. Atmos. Sci. (1998) 10.1175/1520-0469(1998)055<0477:tbeoao>2.0.co;2

[5]

Battistti "A modeling study of the interannual variability in the wintertime North Atlantic Ocean." J. Climate (1995) 10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<3067:amsoti>2.0.co;2

[6]

Bell "Leading tropical modes associated with interannual and multidecadal variations in seasonal North Atlantic hurricane activity." J. Climate (2006) 10.1175/jcli3659.1

[7]

Bell "Climate assessment for 1999." Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2000) 10.1175/1520-0477(2000)81[s1:caf]2.0.co;2

[8]

Benedict "Synoptic view of the North Atlantic Oscillation." J. Atmos. Sci. (2004) 10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0121:svotna>2.0.co;2

[9]

Bhatt "Atmosphere–ocean interaction in the North Atlantic: Near-surface climate variability." J. Climate (1998) 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<1615:aoiitn>2.0.co;2

[10]

Bladé "The influence of midlatitude ocean–atmosphere coupling on the low-frequency variability of a GCM. Part I: No tropical SST forcing." J. Climate (1997) 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2087:tiomoa>2.0.co;2

[11]

Bladé "The influence of midlatitude ocean–atmosphere coupling on the low-frequency variability of a GCM. Part II: Interannual variability induced by tropical SST forcing." J. Climate (1999) 10.1175/1520-0442-12.1.21

[12]

Bonsal "Impact of low frequency variability modes on Canadian winter temperature." Int. J. Climatol. (2001) 10.1002/joc.590

[13]

Bove "Effects of El Niño on U.S. landfalling hurricanes, revisited." Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (1998) 10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2477:eoenoo>2.0.co;2

[14]

Bretherton "An interpretation of the results from atmospheric general circulation models forced by the time history of the observed sea surface temperature distribution." Geophys. Res. Lett. (2000) 10.1029/1999gl010910

[15]

Bretherton "An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data." J. Climate (1992) 10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0541:aiomff>2.0.co;2

[16]

Chelliah "Tropical multidecadal and interannual climate variability in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis." J. Climate (2004) 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1777:tmaicv>2.0.co;2

[17]

Conil, S. , 2003a: Modelisation de l’influence oceanique sur la variabilite atmospherique dans la region Atlantique Nord Europe. Ph.D. thesis, Université Paris VI, Pierre et Marie Curie, 255 pp.

[18]

Conil "Influence of the North Atlantic on simulated atmospheric variability." Ann. Geophys. (2003)

[19]

Czaja "Observed impact of North Atlantic SST anomalies on the North Atlantic Oscillation." J. Climate (2002) 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0606:oioasa>2.0.co;2

[20]

Delworth "North Atlantic interannual variability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model." J. Climate (1996) 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2356:naivia>2.0.co;2

[21]

Deser "Surface climate variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during winter: 1900–89." J. Climate (1993) 10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1743:scvotn>2.0.co;2

[22]

Deser "The effects of North Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3. Part II: Direct and indirect components of the response." J. Climate (2004) 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0877:teonas>2.0.co;2

[23]

Derome "Seasonal predictions based on two dynamical models." Atmos.–Ocean (2001) 10.1080/07055900.2001.9649690

[24]

Dickson "North American influence on the circulation and climate of the North Atlantic sector." Mon. Wea. Rev. (1976) 10.1175/1520-0493(1976)104<1255:naiotc>2.0.co;2

[25]

Drijfhout "The role of the ocean in midlatitude, interannual-to-decadal-timescale climate variability of a coupled model." J. Climate (2001) 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3617:trotoi>2.0.co;2

[26]

Enfield "Relationships of inter-American rainfall to tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST variability." Geophys. Res. Lett. (1996) 10.1029/96gl03231

[27]

Enfield "The dependence of Caribbean rainfall on the interaction of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans." J. Climate (1999) 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2093:tdocro>2.0.co;2

[28]

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S.

David B. Enfield, Alberto M. Mestas‐Nuñez, Paul J. Trimble

Geophysical Research Letters 2001 10.1029/2000gl012745

[29]

Fan "Climate Prediction Center global monthly soil moisture data set at 0.5° resolution for 1948 to present." J. Geophys. Res. (2004) 10.1029/2003jd004345

[30]

Feldstein "The timescale, power spectra, and climate noise properties of teleconnection patterns." J. Climate (2000) 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4430:ttpsac>2.0.co;2

[31]

Gallimore "Simulated ocean–atmosphere interaction in the North Pacific from a GCM coupled to a constant-depth mixed layer." J. Climate (1995) 10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1721:soiitn>2.0.co;2

[32]

Giannini "Interannual variability of Caribbean rainfall, ENSO, and the Atlantic Ocean." J. Climate (2000) 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<0297:ivocre>2.0.co;2

[33]

Giannini "Interdecadal changes in the ENSO teleconnections to the Caribbean region and the North Atlantic Oscillation." J. Climate (2001) 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2867:icitet>2.0.co;2

[34]

Giannini "The ENSO teleconnection to the tropical Atlantic Ocean: Contributions of the remote and local SSTs to rainfall variability in the tropical Americas." J. Climate (2001) 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<4530:tetttt>2.0.co;2

[35]

Gillet, N. P., H.Graf, and T.Osborn, 2003: Climate change and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climate Significance and Environmental Impact, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 134, Amer. Geophys. Union, 193–210. 10.1029/134gm09

[36]

Goldenberg "The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications." Science (2001) 10.1126/science.1060040

[37]

Gray "Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Niño and 30-mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences." Mon. Wea. Rev. (1984) 10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1649:ashfpi>2.0.co;2

[38]

Gray "Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part II: Forecasting its variability." Mon. Wea. Rev. (1984) 10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1669:ashfpi>2.0.co;2

[39]

Gray "Climate trends associated with multi-decadal variability of intense Atlantic hurricane activity." (1997)

[40]

Hartley "Winter Atlantic climate and snowfall in the south and central Appalachians." Phys. Geogr. (1999) 10.1080/02723646.1999.10642665

[41]

Hartley "Synoptic associations of winter climate and snowfall variability in New England, USA, 1950–1992." Int. J. Climatol. (1998) 10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(19980315)18:3<281::aid-joc245>3.0.co;2-f

[42]

Hastenrath "Variations in low-latitude circulation and extreme climatic events in the tropical Americas." J. Atmos. Sci. (1976) 10.1175/1520-0469(1976)033<0202:villca>2.0.co;2

[43]

Higgins "Dominant factors influencing the seasonal predictability of U.S. precipitation and surface air temperature." J. Climate (2000) 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3994:dfitsp>2.0.co;2

[44]

Hoerling "Atmospheric response patterns associated with tropical forcing." J. Climate (2002) 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2184:arpawt>2.0.co;2

[45]

Hoerling "Tropical origins for recent North Atlantic climate change." Science (2001) 10.1126/science.1058582

[46]

Huang "Long-lead seasonal temperature prediction using optimal climate normals." J. Climate (1996) 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<0809:llstpu>2.0.co;2

[47]

Hurrell "Decadal trends in the North-Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation." Science (1995) 10.1126/science.269.5224.676

[48]

Hurrell, J. W., Y.Kushnir, G.Ottersen, and M.Visbeck, Eds.2003: The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact. Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 134, Amer. Geophys. Union, 279 pp. 10.1029/gm134

[49]

Johansson "On the level and origin of seasonal forecast skill in northern Europe." J. Atmos. Sci. (1998) 10.1175/1520-0469(1998)055<0103:otlaoo>2.0.co;2

[50]

Kanamitsu "NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000." Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2002) 10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<1019:ndsfs>2.3.co;2

Showing 50 of 94 references

Metrics

28

Citations

94

References

Details

Published: Dec 01, 2006
Vol/Issue: 19(23)
Pages: 6005-6024

Authors

H

H. M. Van den Dool

Climate Prediction Center, Washington, D.C

P

Peitao Peng

Climate Prediction Center, Washington, D.C

�

Åke Johansson

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden

M

Muthuvel Chelliah

Climate Prediction Center, Washington, D.C

A

Amir Shabbar

Meteorological Service of Canada, Downsview, Ontario, Canada

S

Suranjana Saha

Environmental Modeling Center, Washington, D.C

Cite This Article

H. M. Van den Dool, Peitao Peng, Åke Johansson, et al. (2006). Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictability and Prediction of North American Climate—The Atlantic Influence. Journal of Climate, 19(23), 6005-6024. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3942.1

Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictability and Prediction of North American Climate—The Atlantic Influence

You May Also Like