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journal article Mar 20, 2016

Annual Hazard Rates of Recurrence for Breast Cancer During 24 Years of Follow-Up: Results From the International Breast Cancer Study Group Trials I to V

Marco Colleoni ORCID Zhuoxin Sun Karen N. Price Per Karlsson ORCID John F. Forbes Beat Thürlimann Lorenzo Gianni Monica Castiglione Richard D. Gelber Alan S. Coates Aron Goldhirsch
Journal of Clinical Oncology Vol. 34 No. 9 pp. 927-935 · American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO)
View at Publisher Save 10.1200/jco.2015.62.3504
Abstract
Purpose Predicting the pattern of recurrence can aid in the development of targeted surveillance and treatment strategies. We identified patient populations that remain at risk for an event at a median follow-up of 24 years from the diagnosis of operable breast cancer. Patients and Methods International Breast Cancer Study Group clinical trials I to V randomly assigned 4,105 patients between 1978 and 1985. Annualized hazards were estimated for breast cancer–free interval (primary end point), disease-free survival, and overall survival. Results For the entire group, the annualized hazard of recurrence was highest during the first 5 years (10.4%), with a peak between years 1 and 2 (15.2%). During the first 5 years, patients with estrogen receptor (ER) – positive disease had a lower annualized hazard compared with those with ER-negative disease (9.9% v 11.5%; P = .01). However, beyond 5 years, patients with ER-positive disease had higher hazards (5 to 10 years: 5.4% v 3.3%; 10 to 15 years: 2.9% v 1.3%; 15 to 20 years: 2.8% v 1.2%; and 20 to 25 years: 1.3% v 1.4%; P < .001). Among patients with ER-positive disease, annualized hazards of recurrence remained elevated and fairly stable beyond 10 years, even for those with no axillary involvement (2.0%, 2.1%, and 1.1% for years 10 to 15, 15 to 20, and 20 to 25, respectively) and for those with one to three positive nodes (3.0%, 3.5%, and 1.5%, respectively). Conclusion Patients with ER-positive breast cancer maintain a significant recurrence rate during extended follow up. Strategies for follow up and treatments to prevent recurrences may be most efficiently applied and studied in patients with ER-positive disease followed for a long period of time.
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References
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Journal of Clinical Oncology
Metrics
495
Citations
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References
Details
Published
Mar 20, 2016
Vol/Issue
34(9)
Pages
927-935
Authors
M
Marco Colleoni

Marco Colleoni and Aron Goldhirsch, European Institute of Oncology and International Breast Cancer Study Group, Milan; Lorenzo Gianni, Ospedale degli Infermi and Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Rimini, Italy; Zhuoxin Sun, Karen N. Price, and Richard D. Gelber, International Breast Cancer Study Group Statistical Center and Frontier Science and Technology Research Foundation; Zhuoxin Sun and Richard D. Gelber, Harvard T.F. Chan School of Public Health; Richard D. Gelber,...

Z
Zhuoxin Sun

Marco Colleoni and Aron Goldhirsch, European Institute of Oncology and International Breast Cancer Study Group, Milan; Lorenzo Gianni, Ospedale degli Infermi and Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Rimini, Italy; Zhuoxin Sun, Karen N. Price, and Richard D. Gelber, International Breast Cancer Study Group Statistical Center and Frontier Science and Technology Research Foundation; Zhuoxin Sun and Richard D. Gelber, Harvard T.F. Chan School of Public Health; Richard D. Gelber,...

K
Karen N. Price

Marco Colleoni and Aron Goldhirsch, European Institute of Oncology and International Breast Cancer Study Group, Milan; Lorenzo Gianni, Ospedale degli Infermi and Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Rimini, Italy; Zhuoxin Sun, Karen N. Price, and Richard D. Gelber, International Breast Cancer Study Group Statistical Center and Frontier Science and Technology Research Foundation; Zhuoxin Sun and Richard D. Gelber, Harvard T.F. Chan School of Public Health; Richard D. Gelber,...

P
Per Karlsson

Marco Colleoni and Aron Goldhirsch, European Institute of Oncology and International Breast Cancer Study Group, Milan; Lorenzo Gianni, Ospedale degli Infermi and Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Rimini, Italy; Zhuoxin Sun, Karen N. Price, and Richard D. Gelber, International Breast Cancer Study Group Statistical Center and Frontier Science and Technology Research Foundation; Zhuoxin Sun and Richard D. Gelber, Harvard T.F. Chan School of Public Health; Richard D. Gelber,...

J
John F. Forbes

Marco Colleoni and Aron Goldhirsch, European Institute of Oncology and International Breast Cancer Study Group, Milan; Lorenzo Gianni, Ospedale degli Infermi and Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Rimini, Italy; Zhuoxin Sun, Karen N. Price, and Richard D. Gelber, International Breast Cancer Study Group Statistical Center and Frontier Science and Technology Research Foundation; Zhuoxin Sun and Richard D. Gelber, Harvard T.F. Chan School of Public Health; Richard D. Gelber,...

B
Beat Thürlimann

Marco Colleoni and Aron Goldhirsch, European Institute of Oncology and International Breast Cancer Study Group, Milan; Lorenzo Gianni, Ospedale degli Infermi and Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Rimini, Italy; Zhuoxin Sun, Karen N. Price, and Richard D. Gelber, International Breast Cancer Study Group Statistical Center and Frontier Science and Technology Research Foundation; Zhuoxin Sun and Richard D. Gelber, Harvard T.F. Chan School of Public Health; Richard D. Gelber,...

L
Lorenzo Gianni

Marco Colleoni and Aron Goldhirsch, European Institute of Oncology and International Breast Cancer Study Group, Milan; Lorenzo Gianni, Ospedale degli Infermi and Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Rimini, Italy; Zhuoxin Sun, Karen N. Price, and Richard D. Gelber, International Breast Cancer Study Group Statistical Center and Frontier Science and Technology Research Foundation; Zhuoxin Sun and Richard D. Gelber, Harvard T.F. Chan School of Public Health; Richard D. Gelber,...

M
Monica Castiglione

Marco Colleoni and Aron Goldhirsch, European Institute of Oncology and International Breast Cancer Study Group, Milan; Lorenzo Gianni, Ospedale degli Infermi and Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Rimini, Italy; Zhuoxin Sun, Karen N. Price, and Richard D. Gelber, International Breast Cancer Study Group Statistical Center and Frontier Science and Technology Research Foundation; Zhuoxin Sun and Richard D. Gelber, Harvard T.F. Chan School of Public Health; Richard D. Gelber,...

R
Richard D. Gelber

Marco Colleoni and Aron Goldhirsch, European Institute of Oncology and International Breast Cancer Study Group, Milan; Lorenzo Gianni, Ospedale degli Infermi and Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Rimini, Italy; Zhuoxin Sun, Karen N. Price, and Richard D. Gelber, International Breast Cancer Study Group Statistical Center and Frontier Science and Technology Research Foundation; Zhuoxin Sun and Richard D. Gelber, Harvard T.F. Chan School of Public Health; Richard D. Gelber,...

A
Alan S. Coates

Marco Colleoni and Aron Goldhirsch, European Institute of Oncology and International Breast Cancer Study Group, Milan; Lorenzo Gianni, Ospedale degli Infermi and Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Rimini, Italy; Zhuoxin Sun, Karen N. Price, and Richard D. Gelber, International Breast Cancer Study Group Statistical Center and Frontier Science and Technology Research Foundation; Zhuoxin Sun and Richard D. Gelber, Harvard T.F. Chan School of Public Health; Richard D. Gelber,...

A
Aron Goldhirsch

Marco Colleoni and Aron Goldhirsch, European Institute of Oncology and International Breast Cancer Study Group, Milan; Lorenzo Gianni, Ospedale degli Infermi and Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Rimini, Italy; Zhuoxin Sun, Karen N. Price, and Richard D. Gelber, International Breast Cancer Study Group Statistical Center and Frontier Science and Technology Research Foundation; Zhuoxin Sun and Richard D. Gelber, Harvard T.F. Chan School of Public Health; Richard D. Gelber,...

Cite This Article
Marco Colleoni, Zhuoxin Sun, Karen N. Price, et al. (2016). Annual Hazard Rates of Recurrence for Breast Cancer During 24 Years of Follow-Up: Results From the International Breast Cancer Study Group Trials I to V. Journal of Clinical Oncology, 34(9), 927-935. https://doi.org/10.1200/jco.2015.62.3504
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