Spatial Transformation of the Ukrainian Construction Industry During the Full-Scale War: Regional Disparities and Driving Factors

This paper shows how Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has profoundly reshaped the spatial pattern of Ukraine’s construction activity and has intensified regional disparities in its development. The study identifies a pronounced westward shift in construction activity, evident in the clustering of new residential and logistics construction in the western regions—primarily the Lviv, Zakarpattia, and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts—which have become the primary centers of growth during the war. This process is driven by internal displacement, the reorientation of capital toward safer territories, and developers’ risk-adjusted investment decisions. The study assesses the scale of the decline in construction activity in frontline regions, where permit issuance has been largely restricted, and characterizes the recovery model of formerly occupied northern regions, in which reconstruction and major renovation of the damaged housing stock predominate. The research highlights structural shifts in project typology, characterized by the steady dominance of Class CC1 objects (minor consequences, typically small-scale or low-rise buildings) and a sharp decline in the share of large-scale CC3 projects (significant consequences, such as complex infrastructure or high-rise developments). This trend reflects a fragmentation of the industry and the construction sector’s declining multiplier effect on the wider economy. These trends have resulted in a phenomenon of forced urbanization on the peripheries of western Ukrainian cities and a shift in the functional purpose of development toward residential and social infrastructure. Based on geoinformation, statistical, and regression analyses, the study evaluates the magnitude and direction of the impact of the intensity of hostilities on the spatial concentration of building permits, taking into account the distance to the line of contact, the duration of the active phase of the conflict, and the level of infrastructure damage. A statistically significant inverse relationship between proximity to combat zones and building permit density is established, confirming the emergence of geographic clusters with persistently structurally low investor appeal. The differentiation of regions by models of construction activity is analyzed, with western regions functioning as zones of growth and capital accumulation, central regions as zones of adaptation and maintenance of existing infrastructure, and eastern and frontline regions as zones of limited, predominantly recovery-oriented construction.