Pro-natalist Fertility Policy and Female Analysts: Consequences and Remedies *

This paper examines the labor market consequences of nationwide pro-natalist policies and explores potential mitigating mechanisms. Leveraging China's relaxation of its decades-long One-Child Policy as a quasi-natural experiment, we show a 7.45% decrease in forecast accuracy among female analysts of reproductive age compared to their male counterparts. This motherhood penalty is more pronounced in provinces with stronger fertility norms and for firms that are more difficult to forecast. Moreover, we explore a broad set of potential remedies. Our results suggest that fostering a gender equality culture and expanding access to childcare resources that enhance family-career compatibility can mitigate this negative effect. In contrast, policies that focus primarily on extending maternity leave appear to exacerbate the productivity gap, likely due to the career interruptions that may erode their professional skills and connections. Ultimately, these productivity declines contribute to longer career gaps and higher attrition rates among female analysts, highlighting critical trade-offs between fertility-promoting policies and women's professional advancement.