Jump Processes in Commodity Futures Prices and Options Pricing

Jimmy E. Hilliard; Jorge A. Reis

doi:10.2307/1244581

journal article May 01, 1999

Jump Processes in Commodity Futures Prices and Options Pricing

Jimmy E. Hilliard Jorge A. Reis

American Journal of Agricultural Economics Vol. 81 No. 2 pp. 273-286 · Wiley

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Abstract

AbstractEmpirical evidence shows that log‐return relatives on commodity futures prices are not normally distributed. This departure from normality seems to be caused by large price changes occurring in the commodity markets with the arrival of important new information. This suggests that a jump‐diffusion model may be a plausible choice for modeling the stochastic process underlying commodity option prices. Merton (1976a) develops a jump‐diffusion option pricing model assuming that jump risk is unsystematic. However, the jump‐diffusion model developed by Bates (1991) is more appropriate for commodity option pricing since it allows jump risk to be systematic. In this article, recent transactions data on futures and futures options are used to test out‐of‐sample options using American versions of Black's diffusion and Bates's jump‐diffusion models. The results show that Bates's model performs considerably better than Black's model. Jump‐diffusion Asian option prices are also shown to differ considerably from geometric Brownian motion Asian option prices.

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Details

Published: May 01, 1999
Vol/Issue: 81(2)
Pages: 273-286
License: View

Authors

J

Jimmy E. Hilliard

Department of Banking and Finance University of Georgia

J

Jorge A. Reis

Fixed Income Research Department, Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation

Cite This Article

Jimmy E. Hilliard, Jorge A. Reis (1999). Jump Processes in Commodity Futures Prices and Options Pricing. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 81(2), 273-286. https://doi.org/10.2307/1244581

Jump Processes in Commodity Futures Prices and Options Pricing

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