Assessing the impact of climate warming on tree species composition and distribution in the forest region of Northeast China

Yuanyuan Fu; Chang Liu; Hong S. He; Shaoqiang Wang; Lunche Wang; Zhijie Xie

doi:10.3389/fpls.2024.1430025

journal article Open Access Jul 29, 2024

Assessing the impact of climate warming on tree species composition and distribution in the forest region of Northeast China

Yuanyuan Fu Chang Liu

Hong S. He Shaoqiang Wang

Lunche Wang

Zhijie Xie

Frontiers in Plant Science Vol. 15 · Frontiers Media SA

View at Publisher Save 10.3389/fpls.2024.1430025

Abstract

Global climate change has markedly influenced the structure and distribution of mid-high-latitude forests. In the forest region of Northeast China, the magnitude of climate warming surpasses the global average, which presents immense challenges to the survival and habitat sustainability of dominant tree species. We predicted the potential changes in aboveground biomass, dominant tree species composition, and distribution in the forest region of Northeast China over the next century under different climatic conditions encompassing the current scenario and future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Forest ecosystem process model LINKAGES 3.0 was used to simulate dynamic changes in species-level aboveground biomass under four climate scenarios at the homogeneous land-type unit level. The potential spatial distribution of tree species was investigated based on three indicators: extinction, colonization, and persistence. The results showed that LINKAGES 3.0 model effectively simulated the aboveground biomass of 17 dominant tree species in the forest region of Northeast China, achieving a high accuracy with R² = 0.88. Under the current, RCP2.6, and RCP4.5 climate scenarios, the dominant tree species presented gradual increases in aboveground biomass, whereas under RCP8.5, an initial increase and subsequent decline were observed. With increasing warming magnitude, cold-temperate coniferous tree species will gradually be replaced by other temperate broad-leaved tree species. Furthermore, a large temperature increase under RCP8.5 will likely produce a significant contraction in the potential distribution range of tree species like Larch, Scotch pine, Ribbed birch, Spruce and Fir, while most temperate broad-leaved tree species and Korean pine are expected to demonstrate a northward migration. These findings provide guidance for enhancing the adaptability and resilience of forest ecosystems in middle and high latitudes and addressing the threats posed by climate warming.

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References

Details

Published: Jul 29, 2024
Vol/Issue: 15
License: View

Authors

Universiti Malaysia Kelantan

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China Award: 32101327

Cite This Article

Yuanyuan Fu, Chang Liu, Hong S. He, et al. (2024). Assessing the impact of climate warming on tree species composition and distribution in the forest region of Northeast China. Frontiers in Plant Science, 15. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2024.1430025

Assessing the impact of climate warming on tree species composition and distribution in the forest region of Northeast China

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