Assessment of groundwater drought risk in arid regions using standardized indices and reliability analysis

Soumia Gouahi; Mohammed Hssaisoune; Yassine Ait Brahim; Moussa Ait El Kadi; Mohammed Nehmadou; Lhoussaine Bouchaou

doi:10.3389/frwa.2025.1628691

journal article Open Access Nov 06, 2025

Assessment of groundwater drought risk in arid regions using standardized indices and reliability analysis

Soumia Gouahi Mohammed Hssaisoune

Yassine Ait Brahim

Moussa Ait El Kadi Mohammed Nehmadou Lhoussaine Bouchaou

Frontiers in Water Vol. 7 · Frontiers Media SA

View at Publisher Save 10.3389/frwa.2025.1628691

Abstract

Groundwater drought poses a significant threat to water and food security. In arid regions, groundwater can be the primary resource for irrigation and related agri-food sectors. Hence, herein, we investigated meteorological drought using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) to assess its impact on groundwater drought occurrence in the region of Souss-Massa in Morocco. Groundwater risk modeling was performed by combining reliability analysis with the Standardized Water Level Index (SWI). This methodology generates values for Groundwater Drought Risk (GDR) and the Environmental Hazard Index (EHI), which are spatially distributed to evaluate groundwater risk under various drought bands. Results showed fluctuating dry and wet periods, with a weak correlation between SPI and SWI (
r
= 0.07), suggesting that factors other than meteorological drought predominantly drive groundwater drought occurrence. GDR values range from 19.2% to 57.94% under mild conditions and 15% to 36.62% under extreme conditions, showing increased vulnerability, particularly in the middle Souss and Massa areas. These lower values at higher severity levels reflect the reduced frequency but greater potential impact of severe drought events. EHI results further suggest that the Massa basin and the middle Souss are particularly susceptible to groundwater drought, with values exceeding 80% in some areas, indicating severe environmental impacts, necessitating immediate intervention to properly manage the groundwater resources. Thus, this work could provide valuable insights for policymakers and could be implemented by water resources managers to better anticipate groundwater occurrence and its spatial distribution.

Topics

No keywords indexed for this article. Browse by subject →

References

91

[1]

Abahous "Trend and change point analyses of annual precipitation in the Souss-Massa region in Morocco during 1932–2010" Theor. Appl. Climatol. (2018) 10.1007/s00704-017-2325-0

[2]

"Plan Directeur d’Amenagement Integre des Ressources en Eau (PDAIRE) des basins du Souss-Massa" Inédit Report (2018)

[3]

Abou Ali "Assessment of crop evapotranspiration and deep percolation in a commercial irrigated citrus orchard under semi-arid climate: combined Eddy-covariance measurement and soil water balance-based approach" Agric. Water Manag. (2023) 10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107997

[4]

Abou Ali "Exploring the effect of different irrigation levels on fruit quality in a commercial drip irrigated clementine orchard under semi-arid climate conditions" Irrig. Sci. (2024)

[5]

Ait Brahim "Analysis of observed climate trends and high-resolution scenarios for the 21st century in Morocco" J. Materials Environ. Sci. (2017)

[6]

Ait Brahim "Assessment of climate and land use changes: impacts on groundwater resources in the Souss-Massa River basin" The Souss-Massa River Basin (2016) 10.1007/698_2016_71

[7]

Ait Dhmane "Spatiotemporal characterization and hydrological impact of drought patterns in northwestern Morocco" Front. Water (2024) 10.3389/frwa.2024.1463748

[8]

Ait El Kadi "Impact of agricultural development policies on land use, water resources and rural livelihoods in the semi-arid environment of Souss Basin in Morocco" EGU General Assembly 2025 (2025) 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-581

[9]

Arefinia "Risk, uncertainty, and reliability in water resources management" (2021) 10.1007/978-981-33-4295-8_13

[10]

Attar "A critical review of studies on water resources in the Souss-Massa Basin, Morocco: envisioning a water research agenda for local sustainable development" Water (2022) 10.3390/w14091355

[11]

Balacco "Groundwater drought analysis under data scarcity: the case of the Salento aquifer (Italy)" Sustainability (2022) 10.3390/su14020707

[12]

Balaghi "Managing climatic risks for enhanced food security: key information capabilities" Procedia Environ. Sci. (2010) 10.1016/j.proenv.2010.09.020

[13]

Bhuiyan (2004)

[14]

Bijaber "Developing a remotely sensed drought-monitoring indicator for Morocco" Geosciences (2018) 10.3390/geosciences8020055

[15]

Bloomfield "Analysis of groundwater drought building on the standardised precipitation index approach" Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. (2013) 10.5194/hess-17-4769-2013

[16]

Bloomfield "Regional analysis of groundwater droughts using hydrograph classification" Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. (2015) 10.5194/hess-19-4327-2015

[17]

Bouchaou "Climate change and water valuation in Souss-Massa region: management and adaptive measures" European Water (2017)

[18]

Application of multiple isotopic and geochemical tracers for investigation of recharge, salinization, and residence time of water in the Souss–Massa aquifer, southwest of Morocco

L. Bouchaou, J.L. Michelot, A. Vengosh et al.

Journal of Hydrology 2008 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.01.022

[19]

Bouchaou (2011)

[20]

Groundwater recharge sources in semiarid irrigated mountain fronts

Houssne Bouimouass, Younes Fakir, Sarah Tweed et al.

Hydrological Processes 2020 10.1002/hyp.13685

[21]

Bouragba "Isotopes and groundwater management strategies under semi-arid area: case of the Souss upstream basin (Morocco)" Appl. Radiat. Isot. (2011) 10.1016/j.apradiso.2011.01.041

[22]

Bouras "Linkages between rainfed cereal production and agricultural drought through remote sensing indices and a land data assimilation system: A case study in Morocco" (2020)

[23]

Brouziyne "Assessing hydrological vulnerability to future droughts in a Mediterranean watershed: combined indices-based and distributed modeling approaches" Water (2020) 10.3390/w12092333

[24]

Calverley "Drought, water management, and social equity: Analyzing Cape Town, South Africa’s water crisis" Front. Water (2022) 10.3389/frwa.2022.910149

[25]

Choukr-Allah "Water resources master plan for sustainable development of the Souss-Massa River basin" (2016) 10.1007/698_2016_67

[26]

Collin "Cartographie de la résistance à la sécheresse des principaux systèmes aquifères régionaux à nappe libre" Ministère de l'Industrie, des Postes et Télécommunications et du Commerce Extérieur. (1994)

[27]

Dahhane "Probabilistic linkages of propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought in the north African semi-arid region" Frontiers in Water (2025) 10.3389/frwa.2025.1559046

[28]

Danni "Assessment of water quality and nitrate source in the Massa catchment (Morocco) using δ15N and δ18O tracers" Appl. Radiat. Isot. (2019) 10.1016/j.apradiso.2019.108859

[29]

El Bouazzaoui "Three decades of groundwater drought research: evolution and trends" Water (2024) 10.3390/w16050743

[30]

Eljechtimi (2025)

[31]

Elkouk "Multi-model ensemble projections of soil moisture drought over North Africa and the Sahel region under 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming" Clim. Chang. (2021) 10.1007/s10584-021-03202-0

[32]

Elkouk "Implications of changes in climate and human development on 21st-century global drought risk" J. Environ. Manag. (2022) 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115378

[33]

El-Yazidi "Characterization of climatic drought in the Souss-Massa watershed (Morocco) using the standardized precipitation index (SPI)" BIO Web of Conf. (2024) 10.1051/bioconf/202410901032

[34]

Morocco's coastal aquifers: Recent observations, evolution and perspectives towards sustainability

Yassine Ez-zaouy, Lhoussaine Bouchaou, Aicha Saad et al.

Environmental Pollution 2022 10.1016/j.envpol.2021.118498

[35]

Ez-Zaouy "Combined geophysical methods to investigate seawater intrusion in the Souss-Massa coastal area, Morocco" Groundwater for Sustain. Develop. (2023) 10.1016/j.gsd.2023.100915

[36]

Feng "Propagation of meteorological drought to agricultural and hydrological droughts in the tropical Lancang–Mekong River basin" Remote Sens (2023) 10.3390/rs15245678

[37]

Fniguire "Spatial and temporal analysis of the drought vulnerability and risks over eight decades in a semi-arid region (Tensift basin: Morocco)" Theor. Appl. Climatol. (2017) 10.1007/s00704-016-1873-z

[38]

NDWI—A normalized difference water index for remote sensing of vegetation liquid water from space

Bo-cai Gao

Remote Sensing of Environment 1996 10.1016/s0034-4257(96)00067-3

[39]

Gouahi "Managed aquifer recharge in a semi-arid basin: a case study from the Souss aquifer, Morocco" (2024)

[40]

Gouahi "Assessment of managed aquifer recharge within the Souss river basin" AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (2022)

[41]

Gu "Drought hazard transferability from meteorological to hydrological propagation" J. Hydrol. (2020) 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124761

[42]

Guemouria "System dynamics approach for water resources management: a case study from the Souss-Massa Basin" Water (2023) 10.3390/w15081506

[43]

Hadri "Multiscale drought monitoring and comparison using remote sensing in a Mediterranean arid region: a case study from west-Central Morocco" Arab. J. Geosci. (2021) 10.1007/s12517-021-06493-w

[44]

Hertig "Regional downscaling of Mediterranean droughts under past and future climatic conditions" Glob. Planet. Chang. (2017) 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.10.015

[45]

Hirich "Feasibility of using desalination for irrigation in the Souss Massa region in the south of Morocco" (2015) 10.1007/978-3-319-19123-2_13

[46]

Hssaisoune "Isotopes to assess sustainability of overexploited groundwater in the Souss–Massa system (Morocco)" Isot. Environ. Health Stud. (2017) 10.1080/10256016.2016.1254208

[47]

New evidences on groundwater dynamics from the Souss-Massa system (Morocco): Insights gained from dissolved noble gases

Mohammed Hssaisoune, Lhoussaine Bouchaou, Takuya Matsumoto et al.

Applied Geochemistry 2019 10.1016/j.apgeochem.2019.104395

[48]

Moroccan Groundwater Resources and Evolution with Global Climate Changes

Mohammed Hssaisoune, Lhoussaine Bouchaou, Abdelfattah Sifeddine et al.

Geosciences 2020 10.3390/geosciences10020081

[49]

Hssaisoune "Physical geography, geology, and water resource availability of the Souss-Massa River basin" Handbook Environ. Chemistry (2016) 10.1007/698_2016_68

[50]

Hssaisoune "Geophysical data revealing the control of geological structures in the El Gouna springs in Souss river valley in Morocco" Groundw. Sustain. Dev. (2021) 10.1016/j.gsd.2021.100669

Showing 50 of 91 references

Metrics

3

Citations

91

References

Details

Published: Nov 06, 2025
Vol/Issue: 7
License: View

Authors

Cite This Article

Soumia Gouahi, Mohammed Hssaisoune, Yassine Ait Brahim, et al. (2025). Assessment of groundwater drought risk in arid regions using standardized indices and reliability analysis. Frontiers in Water, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2025.1628691

Assessment of groundwater drought risk in arid regions using standardized indices and reliability analysis

You May Also Like