Engineering Predictive Applications for Academic Track Selection and Student Performance for Future Study Planning in High School Education

With the rapid development in data mining and learning analytics, integrating predictive analytics into educational data has become increasingly critical for supporting students’ learning trajectories. In many schooling systems, the academic tracks (such as Liberal Arts or Science) and the performance of junior high school students can substantially shape their subsequent university pathways and career planning. Despite the long-term impact of these decisions, academic track selections and the evaluation of students’ potential are often made without systematic and evidence-based guidance. Predictive computer applications can assist, but the training of accurate models and the selection of adequate features remain key challenges. This paper details our process of engineering such an application comprising two tasks based on 1357 real-world junior high school academic performance records. The first task applies a classification approach to predict students’ academic track orientation, while the second task employs a multi-output regression model to forecast students’ future academic performance in senior high school. Our approach shows that the stacking ensemble model achieved a classification accuracy of 85.76%, whereas the Bi-LSTM model with multi-head attention attained an overall R2 exceeding 82% in performance forecasting; both models demonstrated strong and reliable predictive capability. Moreover, the proposed approach provides inherent interpretability by decomposing predictions at the subject level. Feature importance analysis reveals how different academic subjects contribute variably to both academic track decisions and future academic performance, offering actionable insights for academic counselling and future study planning. By bridging predictive modelling with students’ educational and career planning needs, this study advances the practical application of educational data mining and provides support for evidence-based academic guidance and future career choices in real-world contexts.