Heatwave Variability and Structure in South Africa during Summer Drought

Innocent L. Mbokodo; Mary-Jane M. Bopape; Thando Ndarana; Sifiso M. S. Mbatha; Tshimbiluni P. Muofhe; Mukovhe V. Singo; Nkosinathi G. Xulu; Tumelo Mohomi; Kingsley K. Ayisi; Hector Chikoore

doi:10.3390/cli11020038

journal article Open Access Feb 05, 2023

Heatwave Variability and Structure in South Africa during Summer Drought

Innocent L. Mbokodo

Mary-Jane M. Bopape

Thando Ndarana Sifiso M. S. Mbatha Tshimbiluni P. Muofhe

Mukovhe V. Singo Nkosinathi G. Xulu Tumelo Mohomi

Kingsley K. Ayisi Hector Chikoore

Climate Vol. 11 No. 2 pp. 38 · MDPI AG

View at Publisher Save 10.3390/cli11020038

Abstract

Pronounced subsidence leading to summer drought over southern Africa causes warmer than average surface air temperatures or even heatwave (HW) conditions. We investigated the occurrence of HWs during the summer drought over South Africa based on station data and the ECMWF ERA5 reanalyses. Temperature observations from the South African Weather Service were analyzed for seasonality and long-term trends (1981–2020) as background to the occurrence and variability of HWs. We focused on three severe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced drought seasons, i.e., 1982/83, 1991/92, and 2015/16, to investigate HW characteristics. While 1997/98 was among the strongest El Niño seasons, the impacts were not as severe because it coincided with an intense Angola low, which allowed for rain-bearing cloud bands to form. Results showed that the hottest months were spread across the austral summer season from December to February. Regions experiencing high mean maximum temperatures and high HW frequencies exhibited a strong ENSO signal, with record HWs occurring during 2015/16. The establishment and persistence of a middle-level high-pressure system over Botswana/Namibia (Botswana High) appears to trigger the longest-lasting HWs during drought seasons. The Botswana high is usually coupled with a near-surface continental heat low and/or tropical warm air advection towards the affected region. It was also found that intense ENSO-induced drought events coincided with high HW frequency over South Africa, such as during 1982/83, 1991/92, and the recent 2015/16 events. The results of this study contribute to understanding drought and heat wave dynamics in a region experiencing rapid warming as a result of climate change.

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Details

Published: Feb 05, 2023
Vol/Issue: 11(2)
Pages: 38
License: View

Authors

I

Innocent L. Mbokodo

Climate Service, South African Weather Service, Private Bag X097, Pretoria 0001, South Africa

M

Mary-Jane M. Bopape

South African Environmental Observation Network, National Research Foundation, Pretoria 0083, South Africa

T

Thando Ndarana

Department of Geography, Geo-Informatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Hatfield 0028, South Africa

S

Sifiso M. S. Mbatha

Climate Service, South African Weather Service, Private Bag X097, Pretoria 0001, South Africa

T

Tshimbiluni P. Muofhe

Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa

M

Mukovhe V. Singo

Departmental of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Venda, Thohoyandou 0950, South Africa

N

Nkosinathi G. Xulu

Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Zululand, KwaDlangezwa 3886, South Africa

T

Tumelo Mohomi

Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Limpopo, Sovenga 0727, South Africa

K

Kingsley K. Ayisi

Risk and Vulnerability Science Center, University of Limpopo, Sovenga 0727, South Africa

H

Hector Chikoore

Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Limpopo, Sovenga 0727, South Africa; Risk and Vulnerability Science Center, University of Limpopo, Sovenga 0727, South Africa

Cite This Article

Innocent L. Mbokodo, Mary-Jane M. Bopape, Thando Ndarana, et al. (2023). Heatwave Variability and Structure in South Africa during Summer Drought. Climate, 11(2), 38. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11020038

Heatwave Variability and Structure in South Africa during Summer Drought

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