journal article Open Access Apr 27, 2023

Hybrid Forecasting Methods—A Systematic Review

Electronics Vol. 12 No. 9 pp. 2019 · MDPI AG
View at Publisher Save 10.3390/electronics12092019
Abstract
Time series forecasting has been performed for decades in both science and industry. The forecasting models have evolved steadily over time. Statistical methods have been used for many years and were later complemented by neural network approaches. Currently, hybrid approaches are increasingly presented, aiming to combine both methods’ advantages. These hybrid forecasting methods could lead to more accurate predictions and enhance and improve visual analytics systems for making decisions or for supporting the decision-making process. In this work, we conducted a systematic literature review using the PRISMA methodology and investigated various hybrid forecasting approaches in detail. The exact procedure for searching and filtering and the databases in which we performed the search were documented and supplemented by a PRISMA flow chart. From a total of 1435 results, we included 21 works in this review through various filtering steps and exclusion criteria. We examined these works in detail and collected the quality of the prediction results. We summarized the error values in a table to investigate whether hybrid forecasting approaches deliver better results. We concluded that all investigated hybrid forecasting methods perform better than individual ones. Based on the results of the PRISMA study, the possible applications of hybrid prediction approaches in visual analytics systems for decision making are discussed and illustrated using an exemplary visualization.
Topics

No keywords indexed for this article. Browse by subject →

References
45
[1]
Shao, X., Ma, D., Liu, Y., and Yin, Q. (2017, January 11–13). Short-term forecast of stock price of multi-branch LSTM based on K-means. Proceedings of the 2017 4th International Conference on Systems and Informatics (ICSAI), Hangzhou, China. 10.1109/icsai.2017.8248530
[2]
Zheng, J., Xu, C., Zhang, Z., and Li, X. (2017, January 22–24). Electric load forecasting in smart grids using Long-Short-Term-Memory based Recurrent Neural Network. Proceedings of the 2017 51st Annual Conference on Information Sciences and Systems (CISS), Baltimore, MD, USA.
[3]
Marino, D.L., Amarasinghe, K., and Manic, M. (2016, January 24–27). Building energy load forecasting using Deep Neural Networks. Proceedings of the IECON 2016—42nd Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society, Florence, Italy. 10.1109/iecon.2016.7793413
[4]
Forecasting Tourist Daily Arrivals With A Hybrid Sarima–Lstm Approach

Don Chi Wai Wu, Lei Ji, Kaijian He et al.

Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research 2021 10.1177/1096348020934046
[5]
Sun "Estimation of Sea Level Variability in the China Sea and Its Vicinity Using the SARIMA and LSTM Models" IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl. Earth Obs. Remote Sens. (2020) 10.1109/jstars.2020.2997817
[6]
Wei, S.Y., and Zhang, J. (2022). Short-Term Passenger Flow Prediction of Railway Epidemic Based on SARIMA—LSTM Combined Model. IEEE Access. 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1464270/v1
[7]
Li "Application of a hybrid model in predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in a Chinese population" Infect. Drug Resist. (2019) 10.2147/idr.s190418
[8]
Wang "Comparison of autoregressive integrated moving average model and generalised regression neural network model for prediction of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China: A time-series study" BMJ Open (2019) 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-025773
[9]
Wang, E., Galjanic, T., and Johnson, R. (2012, January 22–26). Short-term electric load forecasting at Southern California Edison. Proceedings of the 2012 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, San Diego, CA, USA. 10.1109/pesgm.2012.6345494
[10]
Goswami, K., and Kandali, A.B. (2020, January 2–4). Electricity Demand Prediction using Data Driven Forecasting Scheme: ARIMA and SARIMA for Real-Time Load Data of Assam. Proceedings of the 2020 International Conference on Computational Performance Evaluation (ComPE), Shillong, India. 10.1109/compe49325.2020.9200031
[11]
Putra, J.A., Basbeth, F., and Bukhori, S. (2019, January 18–20). Sugar Production Forecasting System in PTPN XI Semboro Jember Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method. Proceedings of the 2019 6th International Conference on Electrical Engineering, Computer Science and Informatics (EECSI), Bandung, Indonesia. 10.23919/eecsi48112.2019.8977010
[12]
Shelatkar "Web Traffic Time Series Forecasting using ARIMA and LSTM RNN" ITM Web Conf. (2020) 10.1051/itmconf/20203203017
[13]
Wang, D., Meng, Y., Chen, S., Xie, C., and Liu, Z. (2021). A Hybrid Model for Vessel Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Wavelet and Prophet. J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 9. 10.3390/jmse9111231
[14]
Zhang "Short-term offshore wind power forecasting—A hybrid model based on Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), and deep-learning-based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)" Renew. Energy (2022) 10.1016/j.renene.2021.12.100
[15]
Zeng, Z., and Khushi, M. (2020, January 19–24). Wavelet Denoising and Attention-based RNN-ARIMA Model to Predict Forex Price. Proceedings of the 2020 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN), Glasgow, UK. 10.1109/ijcnn48605.2020.9206832
[16]
Qiu, J., Du, Q., Wang, W., Yin, K., and Chen, L. (2019, January 15–19). Short-Term Performance Metrics Forecasting for Virtual Machine to Support Anomaly Detection Using Hybrid ARIMA-WNN Model. Proceedings of the 2019 IEEE 43rd Annual Computer Software and Applications Conference (COMPSAC), Milwaukee, WI, USA. 10.1109/compsac.2019.10228
[17]
Khandelwal "Time Series Forecasting Using Hybrid ARIMA and ANN Models Based on DWT Decomposition" Procedia Comput. Sci. (2015) 10.1016/j.procs.2015.04.167
[18]
Keim, D., Kohlhammer, J., Ellis, G., and Mansmann, F. (2010). Mastering the Information Age: Solving Problems with Visual Analytics, Eurographics Association.
[19]
Keim "Designing Pixel-Oriented Visualization Techniques: Theory and Applications" IEEE Trans. Vis. Comput. Graph. (2000) 10.1109/2945.841121
[20]
Kovalerchuk, B., Andonie, R., Datia, N., Nazemi, K., and Banissi, E. (2022). Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Visualization for Visual Knowledge Discovery, Springer International Publishing. 10.1007/978-3-030-93119-3
[21]
Amicis, R.D., Stojanovic, R., and Conti, G. (2009). GeoSpatial Visual Analytics, Springer. 10.1007/978-90-481-2899-0
[22]
Nazemi, K., and Burkhardt, D. (2019, January 2–5). Visual Analytics for Analyzing Technological Trends from Text. Proceedings of the 2019 23rd International Conference Information Visualisation (IV), Paris, France. 10.1109/iv.2019.00041
[23]
Nazemi "Visual analytics for technology and innovation management" Multimed. Tools Appl. (2021) 10.1007/s11042-021-10972-3
[24]
Kovalerchuk, B., Nazemi, K., Andonie, R., Datia, N., and Banissi, E. (2022). Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Visualization for Visual Knowledge Discovery, Springer International Publishing. 10.1007/978-3-030-93119-3
[25]
Sina, L.B., and Nazemi, K. (2022, January 19–22). Visual Analytics for Systematic Reviews According to PRISMA. Proceedings of the 2022 26th International Conference Information Visualisation (IV), Vienna, Austria. 10.1109/iv56949.2022.00059
[26]
PRISMA 2020 explanation and elaboration: updated guidance and exemplars for reporting systematic reviews

Matthew J Page, David Moher, Patrick M Bossuyt et al.

BMJ 2021 10.1136/bmj.n160
[27]
Akgun "Predicting housing sales in turkey using arima, LSTM and hybrid models" J. Bus. Econ. Manag. (2019) 10.3846/jbem.2019.10190
[28]
Yu, L., Wu, C., and Xiong, N.N. (2022). An Intelligent Data Analysis System Combining ARIMA and LSTM for Persistent Organic Pollutants Concentration Prediction. Electronics, 11. 10.3390/electronics11040652
[29]
Temur "Comparison of Forecasting Performance of ARIMA LSTM and HYBRID Models for The Sales Volume Budget of a Manufacturing Enterprise" Istanb. Bus. Res. (2021) 10.26650/ibr.2021.51.0117
[30]
Li "A Novel Multichannel Long Short-Term Memory Method With Time Series for Soil Temperature Modeling" IEEE Access (2020) 10.1109/access.2020.3028995
[31]
Yilmaz "Should Deep Learning Models be in High Demand, or Should They Simply be a Very Hot Topic? A Comprehensive Study for Exchange Rate Forecasting" Comput. Econ. (2021) 10.1007/s10614-020-10047-9
[32]
Peirano "Forecasting inflation in Latin American countries using a SARIMA-LSTM combination" Soft Comput. (2021) 10.1007/s00500-021-06016-5
[33]
Yu, S., Dong, H., Chen, Y., He, Z., and Shi, X. (2019, January 29–31). Clothing Sales Forecast Based on ARIMA-BP Neural Network Combination Model. Proceedings of the 2019 IEEE International Conference on Power, Intelligent Computing and Systems (ICPICS), Shenyang, China. 10.1109/icpics47731.2019.8942427
[34]
Hua "Back-Propagation Neural Network and ARIMA Algorithm for GDP Trend Analysis" Wirel. Commun. Mob. Comput. (2022) 10.1155/2022/1967607
[35]
Hadwan "A Hybrid Neural Network and Box-Jenkins Models for Time Series Forecasting" CMC-Comput. Mater. Contin. (2022)
[36]
Cheng "Multiple strategies for a novel hybrid forecasting algorithm of ozone based on data-driven models" J. Clean. Prod. (2021) 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129451
[37]
Zhang "Groundwater Depth Forecasting Using a Coupled Model" Discret. Dyn. Nat. Soc. (2021)
[38]
Eua-Arporn, B., Huang, S.L., and Kuruoglu, E.E. (2021, January 1–3). Enhancing Neural Network Based Hybrid Learning with Empirical Wavelet Transform for Time Series Forecasting. Proceedings of the 2021 IEEE 33rd International Conference on Tools with Artificial Intelligence (ICTAI), Washington, DC, USA. 10.1109/ictai52525.2021.00063
[39]
Wang "Integrating linear and nonlinear forecasting techniques based on grey theory and artificial intelligence to forecast shale gas monthly production in Pennsylvania and Texas of the United States" Energy (2019) 10.1016/j.energy.2019.04.115
[40]
Belmahdi "A hybrid ARIMA-ANN method to forecast daily global solar radiation in three different cities in Morocco" Eur. Phys. J. Plus (2020) 10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00920-9
[41]
Azad, A.S., Sokkalingam, R., Daud, H., Adhikary, S.K., Khurshid, H., Mazlan, S.N.A., and Rabbani, M.B.A. (2022). Water Level Prediction through Hybrid SARIMA and ANN Models Based on Time Series Analysis: Red Hills Reservoir Case Study. Sustainability, 14. 10.3390/su14031843
[42]
Yu, K.W., Hsu, C.H., and Yang, S.M. (2019, January 17–19). A Model Integrating ARIMA and ANN with Seasonal and Periodic Characteristics for Forecasting Electricity Load Dynamics in a State. Proceedings of the 2019 IEEE 6th International Conference on Energy Smart Systems (ESS), Kyiv, Ukraine. 10.1109/ess.2019.8764179
[43]
The Development of a Hybrid Wavelet-ARIMA-LSTM Model for Precipitation Amounts and Drought Analysis

Xianghua Wu, Jieqin Zhou, Huaying Yu et al.

Atmosphere 10.3390/atmos12010074
[44]
Sina, L., Burkhardt, D., and Nazemi, K. (2020, January 10–11). Visual Dashboards in Trend Analytics to Observe Competitors and Leading Domain Experts. Proceedings of the CERC 2020, CEUR Workshop Proceedings, Belfast, UK.
[45]
Comparing Predictive Accuracy

Francis X Diebold, Robert S Mariano

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 2002 10.1198/073500102753410444
Related

You May Also Like

Machine Learning Interpretability: A Survey on Methods and Metrics

Diogo V. Carvalho, Eduardo M. Pereira · 2019

1,384 citations

The k-means Algorithm: A Comprehensive Survey and Performance Evaluation

Mohiuddin Ahmed, Raihan Seraj · 2020

1,342 citations

Sentiment Analysis Based on Deep Learning: A Comparative Study

Nhan Cach Dang, María N. Moreno-García · 2020

550 citations