Cumulative hazard: The case of nuisance flooding

Hamed R. Moftakhari; Amir AghaKouchak; Brett F. Sanders; Richard A. Matthew

doi:10.1002/2016ef000494

journal article Open Access Feb 01, 2017

Cumulative hazard: The case of nuisance flooding

Hamed R. Moftakhari Amir AghaKouchak

Brett F. Sanders

Richard A. Matthew

Earth's Future Vol. 5 No. 2 pp. 214-223 · American Geophysical Union (AGU)

View at Publisher Save 10.1002/2016ef000494

Abstract

AbstractThe cumulative cost of frequent events (e.g., nuisance floods) over time may exceed the costs of the extreme but infrequent events for which societies typically prepare. Here we analyze the likelihood of exceedances above mean higher high water and the corresponding property value exposure for minor, major, and extreme coastal floods. Our results suggest that, in response to sea level rise, nuisance flooding (NF) could generate property value exposure comparable to, or larger than, extreme events. Determining whether (and when) low cost, nuisance incidents aggregate into high cost impacts and deciding when to invest in preventive measures are among the most difficult decisions for policymakers. It would be unfortunate if efforts to protect societies from extreme events (e.g., 0.01 annual probability) left them exposed to a cumulative hazard with enormous costs. We propose a Cumulative Hazard Index (CHI) as a tool for framing the future cumulative impact of low cost incidents relative to infrequent extreme events. CHI suggests that in New York, NY, Washington, DC, Miami, FL, San Francisco, CA, and Seattle, WA, a careful consideration of socioeconomic impacts of NF for prioritization is crucial for sustainable coastal flood risk management.

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Metrics

206

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97

References

Details

Published: Feb 01, 2017
Vol/Issue: 5(2)
Pages: 214-223
License: View

Authors

H

Hamed R. Moftakhari

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California, Irvine Irvine California USA; Blum Center for Poverty Alleviation University of California, Irvine Irvine California USA

A

Amir AghaKouchak

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California, Irvine Irvine California USA; Blum Center for Poverty Alleviation University of California, Irvine Irvine California USA

B

Brett F. Sanders

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California, Irvine Irvine California USA; Blum Center for Poverty Alleviation University of California, Irvine Irvine California USA; Department of Planning, Policy and Design University of California, Irvine Irvine California USA

R

Richard A. Matthew

Blum Center for Poverty Alleviation University of California, Irvine Irvine California USA; Department of Planning, Policy and Design University of California, Irvine Irvine California USA

Funding

National Science Foundation Award: DMS 1331611

Cite This Article

Hamed R. Moftakhari, Amir AghaKouchak, Brett F. Sanders, et al. (2017). Cumulative hazard: The case of nuisance flooding. Earth's Future, 5(2), 214-223. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016ef000494

Cumulative hazard: The case of nuisance flooding

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