Increasing disturbance frequency undermines coral reef recovery

Michael J. Emslie; Murray Logan; Peran Bray; Daniela M. Ceccarelli; Alistair J. Cheal; Terry P. Hughes; Kerryn A. Johns; Michelle J. Jonker; Emma V. Kennedy; James T. Kerry; Camille Mellin; Ian R. Miller; Kate Osborne; Marji Puotinen; Tane Sinclair‐Taylor; Hugh Sweatman

doi:10.1002/ecm.1619

journal article Jun 24, 2024

Increasing disturbance frequency undermines coral reef recovery

Michael J. Emslie Murray Logan Peran Bray Daniela M. Ceccarelli Alistair J. Cheal Terry P. Hughes

Kerryn A. Johns Michelle J. Jonker Emma V. Kennedy James T. Kerry

Camille Mellin

Ian R. Miller Kate Osborne Marji Puotinen

Tane Sinclair‐Taylor Hugh Sweatman

Ecological Monographs Vol. 94 No. 3 · Wiley

View at Publisher Save 10.1002/ecm.1619

Abstract

AbstractClimate‐driven alterations to disturbance regimes are increasingly disrupting patterns of recovery in many biomes. Here, we examine the impact of disturbance and subsequent level of recovery in live hard coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) across the last three decades. We demonstrate that a preexisting pattern of infrequent disturbances of limited spatial extent has changed to larger and more frequent disturbances, dominated by marine heatwaves and severe tropical cyclones. We detected an increase in the impact (measured as coral loss) across 265 individual disturbance impacts on 131 reefs in a 36‐year dataset (1985–2022). Additionally, the number of survey reefs impacted by disturbance has increased each decade from 6% in the 1980s to 44% in the 2010s, as has the frequency of mass coral bleaching across the GBR, which has increased between 19% and 28% per year, and cyclones (3%–5% per year), resulting in less time for recovery. Of the 265 disturbance impacts we recorded, complete recovery to the highest levels of coral cover recorded earlier in this study (the “historical benchmark”) occurred only 62 (23%) times. Of the 23% of disturbance impacts that resulted in complete recovery to historical benchmarks, 34/62 recovered to their benchmark in 2021 or 2022. Complete recovery was more likely when the historical benchmark was <25% live hard coral cover. The lack of recovery was attributed to recovery time windows becoming shorter due to increases in the frequency of cyclones and of thermal stress events that result in mass coral bleaching episodes. These results confirm that climate change is contributing to ecosystem‐wide changes in the ability of coral reefs to recover.

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Increasing disturbance frequency undermines coral reef recovery

Michael J. Emslie, Murray Logan · 2024

Ecological Monographs

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Details

Published: Jun 24, 2024
Vol/Issue: 94(3)
License: View

Authors

M

Michael J. Emslie

Long Term Monitoring Program Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3 Townsville Queensland Australia

M

Murray Logan

Long Term Monitoring Program Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3 Townsville Queensland Australia

P

Peran Bray

Long Term Monitoring Program Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3 Townsville Queensland Australia

D

Daniela M. Ceccarelli

Long Term Monitoring Program Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3 Townsville Queensland Australia

A

Alistair J. Cheal

Long Term Monitoring Program Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3 Townsville Queensland Australia

T

Terry P. Hughes

Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Queensland Australia

K

Kerryn A. Johns

Long Term Monitoring Program Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3 Townsville Queensland Australia

M

Michelle J. Jonker

Long Term Monitoring Program Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3 Townsville Queensland Australia

E

Emma V. Kennedy

Long Term Monitoring Program Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3 Townsville Queensland Australia

J

James T. Kerry

Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority Townsville Queensland Australia

C

Camille Mellin

The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide South Australia Australia

I

Ian R. Miller

Long Term Monitoring Program Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3 Townsville Queensland Australia

K

Kate Osborne

Long Term Monitoring Program Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3 Townsville Queensland Australia

M

Marji Puotinen

Australian Institute of Marine Science, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre University of Western Australia Crawley Western Australia Australia

T

Tane Sinclair‐Taylor

Long Term Monitoring Program Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3 Townsville Queensland Australia

H

Hugh Sweatman

Long Term Monitoring Program Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3 Townsville Queensland Australia

Funding

Australian Institute of Marine Science

Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority

Cite This Article

Michael J. Emslie, Murray Logan, Peran Bray, et al. (2024). Increasing disturbance frequency undermines coral reef recovery. Ecological Monographs, 94(3). https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1619

Increasing disturbance frequency undermines coral reef recovery

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