The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy

Angelo Forestieri; Elisa Arnone; Stephen Blenkinsop; Angela Candela; Hayley Fowler; Leonardo V. Noto

doi:10.1002/hyp.11421

journal article Jan 18, 2018

The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy

Angelo Forestieri

Elisa Arnone

Stephen Blenkinsop Angela Candela Hayley Fowler Leonardo V. Noto

Hydrological Processes Vol. 32 No. 3 pp. 332-348 · Wiley

View at Publisher Save 10.1002/hyp.11421

Abstract

AbstractIncreasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short‐duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub‐hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth‐Duration‐Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub‐daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub‐daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub‐daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.

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80

References

Details

Published: Jan 18, 2018
Vol/Issue: 32(3)
Pages: 332-348
License: View

Authors

A

Angelo Forestieri

CIMA Research Foundation Via Armando Magliotto, 2 17100 Savona Italy

E

Elisa Arnone

Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Ambientale, Aerospaziale, dei Materiali Università degli Studi di Palermo Viale delle Scienze, Edificio 8 90128 Palermo Italy; AMIGO s.r.l. Via Flaminia 48 I‐00196 Rome Italy

S

Stephen Blenkinsop

School of Engineering and Geosciences Newcastle University Cassie Building Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU UK

A

Angela Candela

Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Ambientale, Aerospaziale, dei Materiali Università degli Studi di Palermo Viale delle Scienze, Edificio 8 90128 Palermo Italy

H

Hayley Fowler

School of Engineering and Geosciences Newcastle University Cassie Building Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU UK

L

Leonardo V. Noto

Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Ambientale, Aerospaziale, dei Materiali Università degli Studi di Palermo Viale delle Scienze, Edificio 8 90128 Palermo Italy

Funding

European Research Council Award: ERC‐2013‐CoG‐617329

Royal Society

Wolfson Foundation

Cite This Article

Angelo Forestieri, Elisa Arnone, Stephen Blenkinsop, et al. (2018). The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy. Hydrological Processes, 32(3), 332-348. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11421

The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy

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