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journal article Open Access Sep 01, 2018

Uncertainty in Sea Level Rise Projections Due to the Dependence Between Contributors

Dewi Le Bars ORCID
Earth's Future Vol. 6 No. 9 pp. 1275-1291 · American Geophysical Union (AGU)
View at Publisher Save 10.1029/2018ef000849
Abstract
Sea level rises at an accelerating pace threatening coastal communities all over the world. In this context sea level projections are key tools to help risk mitigation and adaptation. Projections are often made using models of the main contributors to sea level rise (e.g., thermal expansion, glaciers, and ice sheets). To obtain the total sea level these contributions are added; therefore, the uncertainty of total sea level depends on the correlation between the uncertainties of the contributors. This fact is important to understand the differences in the uncertainty of sea level projections from different methods. Using two process‐based models to project sea level for the 21st century, we show how to model the correlation structure and its time dependence. In these models the correlation primarily arises from uncertainty of future global mean surface temperature that correlates with almost all contributors. Assuming that sea level contributors are independent of each other, an assumption made in many sea level projections underestimates the uncertainty in sea level projections. As a result, high‐end low probability events that are important for decision making are underestimated. The uncertainty in the strength of the dependence between contributors is also explored. New dependence relations between the uncertainty of dynamical processes and surface mass balance in glaciers and ice sheets are introduced in our model. Total sea level uncertainty is found to be as sensitive to the dependence between contributors as to uncertainty in certain individual contributors like thermal expansion and Greenland ice sheet.
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Showing 50 of 72 references

Metrics
46
Citations
72
References
Details
Published
Sep 01, 2018
Vol/Issue
6(9)
Pages
1275-1291
License
View
Authors
D
Dewi Le Bars

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) De Bilt The Netherlands

Cite This Article
Dewi Le Bars (2018). Uncertainty in Sea Level Rise Projections Due to the Dependence Between Contributors. Earth's Future, 6(9), 1275-1291. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018ef000849
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