Asia Faces a Growing Threat From Intraseasonal Compound Weather Whiplash

Beijing Fang; Mengqian Lu

doi:10.1029/2022ef003111

journal article Open Access Jan 31, 2023

Asia Faces a Growing Threat From Intraseasonal Compound Weather Whiplash

Beijing Fang Mengqian Lu

Earth's Future Vol. 11 No. 2 · American Geophysical Union (AGU)

View at Publisher Save 10.1029/2022ef003111

Abstract

AbstractThe sudden swings between drought/heat and pluvial could cause adverse impacts far surpassing the sum of their individual effect. We propose a concept of intraseasonal “compound whiplash event” (CWE) to investigate sudden swings between wet and the compounding warm‐dry events and their changes under climate change. We find that global warming would likely escalate the compound whiplash frequency to two to three and half times (two to three times) by the end of the 21st century under the business‐as‐usual scenario (mitigated scenario). The growing threat of CWE not only stems from the increasing occurrence but also from its intensified severity and extended spatial coverage. Among all sub‐regions, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) region would expect the largest intensification. The resulting population exposure would soar two‐to‐three‐fold over Asia. Populous regions such as North India and EASM region might face a much worse situation than the western China where population is sparse and projected to decline. Moreover, the seasonality of swings with opposite directions would further split as a response to the skewed Asian monsoon annual cycle, leading to more frequent heat‐drought to pluvial swings in spring, and more opposite‐direction swings in autumn, disrupting cultivation and water management convention.

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Citations

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References

Details

Published: Jan 31, 2023
Vol/Issue: 11(2)
License: View

Authors

B

Beijing Fang

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Hong Kong SAR China

M

Mengqian Lu

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Hong Kong SAR China

Funding

Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee Award: 16200920

Cite This Article

Beijing Fang, Mengqian Lu (2023). Asia Faces a Growing Threat From Intraseasonal Compound Weather Whiplash. Earth's Future, 11(2). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003111

Asia Faces a Growing Threat From Intraseasonal Compound Weather Whiplash

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