Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi‐Model Comparison

M. Ben‐Yami; P. Good; L. C. Jackson; M. Crucifix; A. Hu; O. Saenko; D. Swingedouw; Niklas Boers

doi:10.1029/2023ef003959

journal article Open Access Sep 01, 2024

Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi‐Model Comparison

M. Ben‐Yami

P. Good L. C. Jackson

Earth's Future Vol. 12 No. 9 · American Geophysical Union (AGU)

View at Publisher Save 10.1029/2023ef003959

Abstract

AbstractA collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would have substantial impacts on global precipitation patterns, especially in the vulnerable tropical monsoon regions. We assess these impacts in experiments that apply the same freshwater hosing to four state‐of‐the‐art climate models with bistable AMOC. As opposed to previous results, we find that the spatial and seasonal patterns of precipitation change are remarkably consistent across models. We focus on the South American Monsoon (SAM), the West African Monsoon (WAM), the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Models consistently suggest substantial disruptions for WAM, ISM, and EASM with shorter wet and longer dry seasons (−29.07%, −18.76%, and −3.78% ensemble mean annual rainfall change, respectively). Models also agree on changes for the SAM, suggesting rainfall increases overall, in contrast to previous studies. These are more pronounced in the southern Amazon (+43.79%), accompanied by decreasing dry‐season length. Consistently across models, our results suggest a robust and major rearranging of all tropical monsoon systems in response to an AMOC collapse.

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Details

Published: Sep 01, 2024
Vol/Issue: 12(9)
License: View

Authors

M

M. Ben‐Yami

Earth System Modelling School of Engineering and Design Technical University of Munich Munich Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam Germany

Met Office Exeter UK

Met Office Exeter UK

Earth and Life Institute UCLouvain Louvain‐La‐Neuve Belgium

A

A. Hu

Climate and Global Dynamics Lab National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA

O

O. Saenko

SEOS University of Victoria Victoria BC Canada

D

D. Swingedouw

Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC)—Université de Bordeaux Pessac France

N

Niklas Boers

Earth System Modelling School of Engineering and Design Technical University of Munich Munich Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam Germany; Department of Mathematics and Global Systems Institute University of Exeter Exeter UK

Funding

Volkswagen Foundation

Horizon 2020 Framework Programme Award: 820970

H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Award: 956170

Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung Award: 01LS2001A

Met Office Award: GA01101

Cite This Article

M. Ben‐Yami, P. Good, L. C. Jackson, et al. (2024). Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi‐Model Comparison. Earth's Future, 12(9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003959

Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi‐Model Comparison

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